2021 Canadian Election

[maplevalue]

Canada headed to the polls September 20th 2021, so thought a thread was needed.

Personal view is base case Liberal minority, but that in an election most people do not want (even the Globe agrees!) a Trudeau majority will be difficult to come by. Also, given that it will take place after two weeks of back to school which will likely see rising COVID cases in a country that is hyper/overly-sensitive to COVID, there is a risk of an unexpectedly strong showing for either the NDP or Conservatives since voters will be fed up with Trudeau calling this election. 

Peter Mansbridge recently interviewed Jagmeet Singh and O'Toole on his podcast which are interesting to listen to.

Some betting odds on Bodog.

Edited August 16, 2021 by maplevalue

[Parsad]

I'm not interested in voting for any of the three candidates.  None of them are truly talking about restoring prudent financial management...like balancing the budget and limiting the amount of debt piling on.  Even the Conservatives are playing to the audience and pushing policies that will have limited positive outcomes.  All of them are spend, spend, spend, tax, tax, tax.  I think there are certain groups that need to pay more, but it seems to be the only solution for all three parties.  Cheers!  

[maplevalue]

The conservatives are a bit maddening. They are hammering Trudeau about the rising cost of living/inflation, but are silent on modifying the BoC mandate (maybe target lower inflation!); which is the number one thing one could do to rein in inflation. 

[cwericb]

This is just my view, but over the years there seems to have been a trend in Canadian politics.

The Liberals buy votes by throwing away money all over the place. This lasts a few terms. Then this can only go on for so long before the economy is going to tank. At that point the voter wises up, kicks out the Liberals and votes in the Conservatives.

Then for a term or two the Conservatives clamp down on the spending, refill the government coffers and in general, tick off the voters to the point where they become fed up and back in come the Liberals to spend, spend, spend.

Surely we all remember Trudeau’s daily news broadcasts where he was proudly acting like a game show host announcing the results of the latest lottery. So proud to give away a few million here, a few million millions there, and then throwing in the occasional billion or two to the big winners.

And now, when we have employers desperate for workers because who wants to work when SERB pays them to stay home, we are once again seeing a trend towards the Conservatives.

Rinse and repeat.
    

[Parsad]

Everybody is spend, spend, spend.  When the federal parties are less fiscally responsible than BC's NDP government, that should get you worried.  I think I'm going to have to vote Conservative...O'Toole is walking down the middle like the LIberals, but at least more fiscally responsible.  The NDP have no real plan other than to tax the rich and reduce climate change.  Unless they bring Paul Martin out of the wood work, the Liberals have little chance of getting my vote, just like the last election.  Cheers!

[cwericb]

“Pretty is as pretty does”, or as the song goes, ‘She ain’t pretty she just looks that way”

Trudeau looks good on TV, but he comes off as a sleezball dressed up in a nice suit. Would you buy a used car from that guy?

[maplevalue]

Trudeau looked real bad in that debate. Always on the defensive, very negative. I doubt too many swing voters will have been convinced by his performance.

Conservative minority looks more likely now. Likely will lead to a continuation of Canada being unable to get big infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) built, and continuing large deficits.

Canada a bleak place economically.