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A Sad Day For America

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^ What's lost on this viewpoint is that the "Center" of the Republican Party IS TRUMP.


It's the "working class" - which use to be Democratic - but was left behind by the Democrats.  Republicans never gave a shit about the working class.

Like it or not, Trump fought the ENTIRE Republican Party, and transformed it into a whole new party.


Issues like open borders, illegal immigration, job losses, rebuilding Middle America and exposing China were ALL brilliant Trump initiatives -

much to the embarrassment of the old gutless Republican Party.


No one is going to get behind a loser like Mitt Romney ever again. He's more of the same old Republicans shtick that gives two shits about Middle America.


The Republican Leadership may not be with Trump - but they will never survive as a viable party without him. There is no going back.

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Former Republican governor of CA who grew up in Austria shares views of Wednesday's events. I thought it was on point:





I'm sure many people went about their "normal day to day life" the day after Kristallnacht as well, doesn't mean it wasn't a significant and dark day...

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^ Yeah, and it was very interesting about how Arnold left out the other half of the story. I've always been a big Arnold fan.

Too bad his premise is built on a foundation of lies. No mention of the Biden Crime Family and their significant efforts to enrich themselves,

while agents of the Federal Government. China, Ukraine, Russia. Not one word. No mention of the DNC leadership failures leading to the

destruction of our cities. Not one word about the thousands of sworn affidavits on election fraud.


Nice try though Arnold. If you want to get the other 75M behind you - try telling both sides of the story instead of producing a propaganda hit piece.

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The Republican Leadership may not be with Trump - but they will never survive as a viable party without him. There is no going back.


If the Senate convicts Trump he will be ineligible.


Won’t happen. The Republicans need the votes of his cult followers.

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The Republican Leadership may not be with Trump - but they will never survive as a viable party without him. There is no going back.


If the Senate convicts Trump he will be ineligible.

Corporate America is going to end the party before they even get a chance to convict. Citibank is the fourth and latest major corporation to ban giving to Trumpists. The flood of corporations that have pledged not to give money to those who objected to counting the votes has just started. No money=no party. Also, the myth that  business loves Trump is about to vanish.


In other news, The PGA has banned all business with Trump. Wouldn't surprise me if the USGA refuses to do business with Trump in the future. Those golf courses aren't going to be as valuable if you can't use the handicapping system.

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The Republican Leadership may not be with Trump - but they will never survive as a viable party without him. There is no going back.


If the Senate convicts Trump he will be ineligible.


Won’t happen. The Republicans need the votes of his cult followers.

It's going to happen, but it may not happen for about three months, and Trump and his cronies may be in handcuffs by then. Convicting Trump in the Senate will be a lot easier for Republicans when the narrative has evolved over the next three months and voters are already used to seeing Trump in a jumpsuit.


In addition to the political risk, the risk of being executed by a mob will be much lower for Republicans in three months. Plus they will be able to share the risk with the judiciary. The Judicial Branch is also more equipped to deal with dangerous criminals, and will likely be busy locking up many Trumpists at all levels.


We've seen that Republicans and Trump supporters in particular have a remarkable ability to lap up absolute fictions, so the Republicans have about three months to create some slowly evolving fiction that allows the party to bring as many voters along as possible, but the complete destruction or at least a splintering of the Republican Party is also very likely.

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You guys just kill me with your comedy routine.


Obama and Hillary led 4 heroes to their death in Benghazi but refusing to protect/re-inforce them when they rushed to protect the US Embassy.

Such utter and complete incompetence.


Worse yet, they concocted a bogus cover-up and lied to the Nation for weeks - until emails from Hillary to Chelsea were discovered by Judicial-Watch.


By your standards - both should have been impeached/executed for causing the murder of 4 brave Americans.


What a bunch of hypocritical clowns!!

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We are starting to see the fallout for Trump from his actions last week. When your most staunch supporters want nothing to do with you, you are in deep, deep shit. Money tap is also being turned off (is money important in US politics?). Ban on social media (no megaphone).


This has got to be driving the man crazy... except, can it get any worse for him?


Patriots’ Belichick won’t accept Presidential Medal of Freedom.

- https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/11/us/bill-belichick-medal-of-freedom.html?action=click&module=Alert&pgtype=Homepage

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Well, you see, Obama's forceful policies do affect my day to day life. I have small children and I don't want them being taught that they can choose their gender nor do I want my daughter being denied athletic achievements to a biological male.


I'm not ignoring Trump or the things that he's done. As I've said before, the guy is a turd. But, what alternative do I have?


You really are quite something with your transgender phobia. I have fiends with kids in 3 different states and none of them had issues with this about transgenders competing against girls either anywhere.

Raising kids isn’t easy, but you really getting hung up on a nothingburger.


None of this has anything to do with Obama anyways.



I don't think the term phobia is really appropriate here (people use it because it's emotionally charged). A phobia is an irrational fear. There is evidence that this kind of stuff is already happening.








Now, you might be right in saying that I'm overweighting the probability of this occurring but it certainly is occurring. I suppose it doesn't help that my brother is a teacher and he said this is increasing too.

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Well Trump clearly won the “easy to win” Trade War, banned Tiktok, built That Wall, fixed healthcare, now leaving us to be awed for his final week: infrastructure week!


So many tangible victories that have made us “great” again...Tired of winning?

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^ Agree - There is NOTHING like the Cancel Culture of the LEFT in action. Congratulations.


It's a lonely place for Trump and 75M+ Americans.


Hmmm, I would probably drop that number down to about 55M after what happened at the Capitol.  Alot of those in the middle have firmly moved away from  the orange ass blossom and his administration!  Cheers!

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Republican legislators are calling this a coup attempt. Anyone who said that we didn't have to worry about a coup attempt has finally been proven wrong.


People are going to die over this. Probably more likely protestors than anyone else. There are reports of gunfire, and pipe bombs. I saw video of people being taken out in ambulances on stretchers.


Plus with COVID, it is likely that police and especially older members of government and staffers may die from this chaos and the need to seek shelter in cramped spaces.


Plus this will be all sorts of risks for the police and other security agencies.


The "law and order President" has just given the USA it's first coup.

So this post was written has it happened. How have these forecasts turned out?


1) Plenty of Republican leaders are continuing to call this a coup attempt. So that statement of fact has only grown as more legislators, governors and retired Republican leaders.  So that one stands the test of time. Plus respected news publications and academic experts and military experts all agree. With time more truth will come out, the time line will be further developed and extended back in time and culpability will be more broadly understood by the public.


2) Though this was written before the reports of any deaths, we now know that:


-Officer Sicknick died from being beaten to death with a fire extinguisher

-Another officer committed suicide. 


-One seditionist shot and killed by a USCP officer on protective detail

-One seditionist killed when trampled by the mob

-One seditionist killed after accidentally tazing himself

-One seditionist killed after falling off a wall he was climbing


-One seditionist killed himself after being arrested


-One financial supporter who paid $522,000 for the riot committed suicide after his contribution was exposed



3) At least five members of congress seem to blame their contracting COVID on the riots



4) Regarding COVID and police and other security forces, I doubt we will have much information released to the public due to ongoing security risks. It would seem to reason that USCP were at greater risk than than the Congress due to a lack of masks among the seditionists, the close quarters and the extended physicality of the melee. So if people in congress contracted it, there must be a lot of USCP who contracted it.


Seems like these forecasts have held up well.




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The first death has been announced. RIP poor victim of another Trump grift.


As sad as this all is, I do not think we should underestimate the probability of the following taking place:


-The joint session completes their constitutional duties as early as this evening. Process of Biden becoming the next President completed.

-25th Amendment being invoked within 24 hours

-Trump impeached within the next day or two

-Trump convicted and removed before the completion of his term


Other serious risks that currently exist is that Trump will flee the country. Impeaching, removing, and convicting Trump of sedition or some other crime and putting him behind bars, would remove the risk of him fomenting insurrection from exile or sharing the information he would take with him in his head with the enemies of the USA.


We also should consider that Giuliani, Stone and other dirty tricksters may find themselves behind bars again soon.

This post was written while the capitol was still under siege. How did my immediate impressions hold up?


First, if I had taken more time to write this post, I likely would have written something more like "we should not underestimate the probability that any one of the following might happen". I think would have more accurately captured my point regarding a Bayesian approach to updating estimates regarding potential outcomes and the time required to achieve an outcome.


Seen in that light, it seems spot on, especially given that most all Trumpists seemed to think I was nuts at the time.


1) Yes, the Congress did return that evening and confirmed Biden during a session that lasted way in to the evening. There were no real substantive attempts to object and no real attempts to delay the proceedings by Republicans.


2) No the 25th was not formally inacted, but YES many cabinet members and others have said they are acting under a "defacto-25th amendment". There are many indications that the military and others including cabinet members have stopped listening to Trump and do everything they can to avoid any interaction with Trump. Apparently Cipollone was recommending that behavior for some time.


3) Yes Trump was impeached in the fastest process ever seen. How many people before the self-coup attempt, or at the time that the insurrection was still happening would have believed that:

  • the an entire impeachment trial could take place in one day, and
  • the Republican Representatives would do nothing to delay the process, and
  • Republican Representatives would not dispute the facts of the case or make any substantive arguments
  • the impeachment articles could be brought to the house in less than a week after the self-coup attempt
  • that it would not only be the fastest impeachment in history, but also
  • the most bipartisan impeachment in history

4) Trump has not been tried and I think that it makes sense that the earliest a trial could probably start is after January 20th, but at the same time, it might make sense that the trial not start for another three months. By that time support for Trump may be so low that Republican Senators might face little political risk if they vote to convict.


Ultimately, a trial in the Senate doesn't really matter, and all of this is more likely resolved in the courts, or at least first in the courts and then in the Senate. The Senate already knows the truth and has the votes if they all voted by conscious, but the issue is getting it done without putting national security at risk, or risking losing too many Republican supporters. Therefore delay is the most likely choice for Republican Senators.


Also, a trial in the Senate doesn't really matter because there is also the lower bar of the 14th amendment section 3, which only requires a simple majority vote in the House and Senate. That could be achieved with zero support from Republicans.


The rest of the predictions regarding Giuliani, Stone, Trump family members and others, I think it is too early to say but we can say that things don't look good for them. I guess we will find out soon.



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