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Probability that democrats will control the senate


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Setting politics aside, and strictly from investment perspective, what do folks think is the probability that democrats will end up taking control of the senate?

 

The runoff polls suggest the probability has been ranging from somewhere between 25% and 75%: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/

 

Any thoughts on why Mr. Market seems to be thinking the probability is still around 0% even though the probability has gone up since Nov 4? 

 

I'd like to request that we keep this thread completely fact-based without any name-calling or offensive language.  To help with that, it will be great if you can include a link to a credible source for facts from which you deduce your opinion, especially if your opinion might be controversial.

 

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I don't know that Mr. Market puts the probability around zero but I do think the current 63% Republican / 38% Democratic odds in prediction markets are understating Republicans odds.  I think it is very likely that Republicans win at least one of the GA seats and I would personally bet they win both.  But Georgia could surprise me.

 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366

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This is the biggest behind the scenes issue folks that Ive been exchanging thoughts with over the past couple weeks have been looking at. I only have marginal exposure at this point to things that I view as sensitive to this outcome, and am very well hedged, so I dont really care which way the chips fall.

 

I also think if we are in search of valid and credible info, leading with a poll from 538 is at best satirical, no? Did we just learn nothing from 2020? After learning nothing in 2016? These people running most of the polls are loser partisan blowhards. If you want a poll, look at maybe Trafalgar, which has GA leaning blue, or go check the betting lines, which have GA red at a 155-220 favorite.

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Any thoughts on why Mr. Market seems to be thinking the probability is still around 0% even though the probability has gone up since Nov 4? 

 

There is definitely a bias here that the market would perform poorly if the Dems win. I tend to agree with that assessment, and have been thinking about this exact issue for weeks, but I also think there are so many times that the market reacts to events differently than I expect, that maybe it is a rational digestion of the GA probabilities, with a different expectations of what that means for the markets.

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Any thoughts on why Mr. Market seems to be thinking the probability is still around 0% even though the probability has gone up since Nov 4? 

 

 

I think the market is also factoring in how far to the left Manchin (WV) and Sinema (AZ) would be willing to go.  In other words major legislative change will require not only Dems winning both GA seats but also keeping Sinema's and Manchin's support.  Of course there is not a great deal of difference between them and Collins (ME) so they could theoretically lose Manchin or Sinema and gain Collins. 

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Pretty good odds for democrats if this happens again:

 

We have triers of fact that specialize in considering authenticity and credibility of evidence based on Federal Rules of Evidence that have developed over centuries, starting with common law: https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/Rules%20of%20Evidence. 

They also specialize in deciding what that evidence proves and how much impact it has on the overall result.

 

By credible source for controversial opinions, I meant something that a trier of fact, i.e. a trial court judge has decided to be credible and made his/her decision based on that.

Rules_of_Evidence.pdf

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If you're allowed to post a 538 poll then its fair game for JRM...

 

When you are as wrong as these idiots were in 2016 and again in 2020, at best you are a total fool and at worst purposely trying to interfere with an election. In either event, those types of people/polls/sources have no more place here than the voter fraud stuff.

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If you're allowed to post a 538 poll then its fair game for JRM...

 

When you are as wrong as these idiots were in 2016 and again in 2020, at best you are a total fool and at worst purposely trying to interfere with an election. In either event, those types of people/polls/sources have no more place here than the voter fraud stuff.

 

I agree with you that (1) Trafalgar, betting lines, and 538 polls should not be relied on 100%.  I hear you on (2) what JRM posted.

 

The difference between #1 and #2 is that arguments like #2 have already gone through multiple Republican appointed triers of fact following centuries-tested Federal Rules of Evidence to decide what is credible and what is not credible, and whether the evidence proves what is being alleged, and those triers of have fact have already decided that the evidence does not prove what JRM was implying.

 

Because #1 has not gone through a similar test and #2 has been been decided otherwise by those triers of fact, I assign higher credibility to #1 and lower credibility to #2.

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Well, Stacey Abrams was bragging about registering 80,000 new voters in three weeks following the Nov 3 election (as in they didn't vote in the Nov 3 election).  Assuming those are mostly democrats, they will be tough to beat.  Just my uneducated opinion. 

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I think the chances for the Dems to win the senate race are actually pretty good. Typically the runoff would have favored the Republicans upon a normal situation, due to a tendency of having more voter participation, but the current situation is anything but normal.

 

I agree.  I think the probability of Republicans winning the senate was so much higher around Nov 4.  Since then, if Trump and Republicans had focused on trying to make truthful accurate statements, had honored our democratic institutions, and hadn't made far-reaching claims that put our democracy at risk, which all Judges appointed by Trump found to be false, Republicans would have won the senate.

 

Now, I believe there will be enough rational people in Georgia in the middle of the political spectrum who are watching this all and seeing the threat to democracy and independent judiciary, and threats to their vote not being counted at all and will say we don't want that risk of losing democracy. All it takes is a small percentage of such rational folks to swing the vote in democrat's favor.

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Or.... the much more likely scenario is most of these bums are poorly educated, care little about "democracy being at risk" and all that other garbage, and are simply susceptible to a system that currently allows folks to go door to door and say "you want $2000? good sign here, you dont even have to get off your ass". Thinking its anything more is massively naive.

 

Much of this covid mirage, much like some of these one hit wonder companies getting earnings boosts, will fade over the next few years. Once people actually have to show up to the polls again, much of this dissipates. This is the perfect environment for cultivating lazy freeloader votes.

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I am merely going or by the latest voting trends. I don’t even care too much, but my 14 year old son looked at the data ( he is a bit of an intuitive number/ stats wizard) and he believes it will result in Dems winning the race, based on a comp with 2016 trends. His argumentation sounded reasonable when I looked at the voting trends myself.

 

I trust him more so than Nate Silver.

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I think the chances for the Dems to win the senate race are actually pretty good. Typically the runoff would have favored the Republicans upon a normal situation, due to a tendency of having more voter participation, but the current situation is anything but normal.

 

I agree.  I think the probability of Republicans winning the senate was so much higher around Nov 4.  Since then, if Trump and Republicans had focused on trying to make truthful accurate statements, had honored our democratic institutions, and hadn't made far-reaching claims that put our democracy at risk, which all Judges appointed by Trump found to be false, Republicans would have won the senate.

 

Now, I believe there will be enough rational people in Georgia in the middle of the political spectrum who are watching this all and seeing the threat to democracy and independent judiciary, and threats to their vote not being counted at all and will say we don't want that risk of losing democracy. All it takes is a small percentage of such rational folks to swing the vote in democrat's favor.

 

You keep repeating the mantra that there is no evidence as determined by our courts.  I didn't follow all 50 cases, but the cases I followed were either not taken up, or thrown out on a technicality or procedural issue.  The one case taken up by the Wisconsin Supreme Court was voted down based on the doctrine of laches; however, 3 of the 7 judges agreed that the state constitution was violated.  Judgements are not being made on the merits of the cases.  Some of these cases are cut and dry constitutional violations like the Wisconsin SC case.  One Wisconsin SC justice actually called the case 'racist'; not making this up.

 

The courts obviously don't want to get involved in flipping the election.  They have more or less said it is the job of the legislatures.  I get the impression most people are parroting what they heard on CNN about 50-1...SCOREBOARD!

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As far as the Georgia Senate runoff is concerned, you have to understand that polling shows nearly half of Georgia residents think that fraud occurred in the Nov 3 election.  Reports like this from the Senate Judiciary Committee (and multiple hearings) don't help:

 

http://www.senatorligon.com/THE_FINAL%20REPORT.PDF

 

Whether or not the fraud occurred, many people in Georgia (especially the MAGA crowd) are convinced it did.  Use this as an initial assumption for your predictions.

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Yea I always get amusement out of the retarded theories or elaborate "Trump/ Trump supporters" stories and wonder how its possible to just outright miss whats otherwise seemingly obvious. The reason DJT went off about the $2000 checks is because he realized Republicans were on the wrong side of the trade with the $600 vs $1200 stimulus proposal and that something like this, was the most important and obvious carrot; almost certainly necessary to ride out Georgia. $2000 is a lot of dough for these buffoons, he realized they would either get it before the runoffs, or after. McConnell was a stubborn fool and it'll cost him(IMO). There's nothing else to it.

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Yea I always get amusement out of the retarded theories or elaborate "Trump/ Trump supporters" stories and wonder how its possible to just outright miss whats otherwise seemingly obvious. The reason DJT went off about the $2000 checks is because he realized Republicans were on the wrong side of the trade with the $600 vs $1200 stimulus proposal and that something like this, was the most important and obvious carrot; almost certainly necessary to ride out Georgia. $2000 is a lot of dough for these buffoons, he realized they would either get it before the runoffs, or after. McConnell was a stubborn fool and it'll cost him(IMO). There's nothing else to it.

 

Wonder if this is also why he was adamant about having his name on the checks.

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I think the chances for the Dems to win the senate race are actually pretty good. Typically the runoff would have favored the Republicans upon a normal situation, due to a tendency of having more voter participation, but the current situation is anything but normal.

 

I agree.  I think the probability of Republicans winning the senate was so much higher around Nov 4.  Since then, if Trump and Republicans had focused on trying to make truthful accurate statements, had honored our democratic institutions, and hadn't made far-reaching claims that put our democracy at risk, which all Judges appointed by Trump found to be false, Republicans would have won the senate.

 

Now, I believe there will be enough rational people in Georgia in the middle of the political spectrum who are watching this all and seeing the threat to democracy and independent judiciary, and threats to their vote not being counted at all and will say we don't want that risk of losing democracy. All it takes is a small percentage of such rational folks to swing the vote in democrat's favor.

 

You keep repeating the mantra that there is no evidence as determined by our courts.  I didn't follow all 50 cases, but the cases I followed were either not taken up, or thrown out on a technicality or procedural issue.  The one case taken up by the Wisconsin Supreme Court was voted down based on the doctrine of laches; however, 3 of the 7 judges agreed that the state constitution was violated.  Judgements are not being made on the merits of the cases.  Some of these cases are cut and dry constitutional violations like the Wisconsin SC case.  One Wisconsin SC justice actually called the case 'racist'; not making this up.

 

The courts obviously don't want to get involved in flipping the election.  They have more or less said it is the job of the legislatures.  I get the impression most people are parroting what they heard on CNN about 50-1...SCOREBOARD!

 

I actually read the cases.  Take a look at the Wisconsin case you mentioned:https://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/20314498782.pdf

 

on the merits of plaintiff’s claims, the Court now further concludes that plaintiff has not proved that defendants violated his rights under the Electors Clause

 

The things that you call technicalities are our rules that courts follow that ensure fairness in our system.  Even when courts are dismissing a case based on what you call a technicality, if you read the cases, they are saying enough in there that the arguments being made are so shocking to the rule of law, but instead of having to rule on the merits, they pick the procedural rule to give a ruling on because that is the first thing they look at.

 

You have to also keep in mind the credibility of facts is decided at the trial court level.  The Appellate and Supreme Courts rule on issues of law.

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That looks like a Wisconsin District Court ruling. 

 

This is what I was referring to: https://www.wicourts.gov/sc/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=315395

 

"We conclude the Campaign is not entitled to the relief it seeks. The challenge to the indefinitely confined voter ballots is meritless on its face, and the other three categories of ballots challenged fail under the doctrine of laches."

 

Yes, I would called doctrine of laches a technicality, especially when 3 of 7 judges actually voted in favor of Troupis.  If this was some bogus claim I would expect all 7 judges to toss it our or not even look at it.

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You either believe in the justice system or you do not. You can't cherry pick and say the judgements you favor were good and the ones you do not are bad.

 

For those that continue to ignore the fact that some 60 (?) cases have been thrown out indicates that they do not believe in the US justice system. The system  which is the very foundation of the country.

 

We are not talking about an aberration where a single case may have had a questionable out come we are talking about dozens and dozens of cases with the same outcome. To refuse to accept those decisions is a delusional refusal to accept reality.

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