US Federal Election - Florida

[no_free_lunch]

I believe that the Republicans could very well win in Florida next week.  This is not based on what I would like or some hunch but on statistics.  It all comes down to the numbers the state is releasing on early and mail in voting.  There has been a very strong trend for in-person early voters to vote Republican (46% registered republican vs 33% registered democrat).  We see the opposite in the mail-in votes and that needs to be accounted for as well.  I took the time,  I built a model, I am forecasting a very small edge to Trump.  Polls can be dammed.

 

If anyone is curious I could probably share the numbers.

 

Assuming all mail in votes are returned (there is 1.6m outstanding), my forecast is 6.95m R votes vs 6.93m D votes.  The tightest of margins but with a Republican edge.

 

If we assumed no more mail in votes are returned, I forecast 6.43m R, 6.25m D, or a 200k vote lead.

 

Republicans, please don't believe the hype, you are still in this.

 

 

 

We will see!

[cubsfan]

This is worth your read: Democrat leadership worried about Black and Hispanic turnout...no enthusiasm for Biden.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/30/florida-democrats-panic-election-day-approaches-weve-got-stop-bleeding/

 

Democrats are expressing unease as the election enters its final stretch, acknowledging that progressives are not seeing sufficient voter turnout in Florida’s Miami-Dade — the county in which Democrats need a strong showing to flip the state blue — particularly among young, minority voters.

 

A Trafalgar Group survey released Thursday showed Trump leading by 2. 7 percent, within the survey’s margin of error.

 

Trafalgar Poll was most accurate poll in 2016 - not that it means too much...

 

 

[Cardboard]

Contrarily to how they are being portrayed by mainstream media and Democrats, vast majority of American minorities are not looking for handouts and are proud Americans.

 

They work hard and try to give the best they can to their kids. I know many and that image of victims, poor, unable to achieve success doesn't sit well with them at all. And here I am talking about from all kinds of income levels.

 

With Trump they know that they are dealing with an ass but, at least he says it like it is.

 

On the other hand you have these hypocrites who keep saying that they are the ones to take care of them but, other than keeping them in that "ghetto" of "you are different than the rest" which is shameful, really don't do squat for them. Even if he is black and for 8 years.

 

Now they have this old white man who prosecuted more than any on drugs, except for his son of course and this semi African-American female who certainly doesn't sound either like any black woman that I have ever heard. Add to this another fake Native in that crazy Warren biatch.

 

It just seems to me that this level of hypocrisy and identity politics should backfire on them.

 

Cardboard

[gfp]

Yes, Trump is favored to win Florida. That isn’t enough to win the presidency though.

 

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5544

https://www.predictit.org/

[cubsfan]

^Sure it is - when he takes the Black & Hispanic vote - Biden is done.

 

 

Not good news for Biden - IF true - he loses on Tuesday:

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/29/nolte-poll-shows-black-support-trump-31-percent/

 

The daily Rasmussen Reports poll that tracks black support for President Donald Trump shows the president sitting at 31 percent as of Thursday, just five days before the election.

 

[Gregmal]

Yea Florida isn't determining the election unless Trump losses it. He's probably gonna need to take PA.

[Castanza]

Yea Florida isn't determining the election unless Trump losses it. He's probably gonna need to take PA.

 

Good thing there has been thousands of ballots going missing  ;D

[Gregmal]

Watching the bookies rather than the polls....AZ has swung from likely modest Republican to modest Democrat during the past week. Popular vote has widened significantly for the Democrats from -450 to -900. Both bode well for Biden. This is at odds with the pollsters....who seem to be shameless covering their asses, and reigning in their figures a bit. Frankly I think any pollster off by a certain margin should be fined as their shameless tactics are definitely deliberate and a form of election interference as it is an obvious form of misinformation.

[Spekulatius]

I agree on Florida going trending the Republicans - at least the results from early voting indicate such. Other states (Especially Midwest), NC and PA seem trending towards the Democrats. US elections are never done before they are done.

[Viking]

If the Democrats take Florida then we will see a Blue wave.

 

As was stated up thread, i think PA is the key state to watch. And then Arizona. If Biden wins either of these, i think he wins. Trump likely needs to win all three above to win. Possible.

 

There are so many moving pieces to this election it will be crazy interesting to see how it plays out.

- Turnout? Love of Trump? Hatred of Trump? Virus surge? - likely very high

- Voter suppression? Voter intimidation? - yup

- do we have a declared winner on Tuesday night? How quickly the count gets done? Mail in ballots? - unless a blue wave, likely no winner declared Tuesday night

- Disputed results? Court challenges? - unless blue wave, likely

- Refusal to step down? - no idea; would not be a surprise

- Do we see violence? Election day or afterwards? Militias? - no idea; would not be a surprise

- What does Trump do? Especially if he is the loser? - whatever is in his self interest

[cubsfan]

^ You will see plenty of violence if Trump wins - big plans in preparation by BLM & AntiFA:

 

https://www.breitbart.com/law-and-order/2020/10/30/cities-across-u-s-boarding-up-in-anticipation-of-election-night-riots/

From New York and DC to Los Angeles and San Francisco, businesses in American cities are boarding up their windows in advance of election-night returns.

[no_free_lunch]

He won PA in 2016.  Since then Republicans have registered 200k more voters while Dems lost some. I think it's possible but admittedly I haven't dived into it.

[cubsfan]

He won PA in 2016.  Since then Republicans have registered 200k more voters while Dems lost some. I think it's possible but admittedly I haven't dived into it.

 

If he takes Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin - he's likely the winner.

He can afford to lose PA.

[cubsfan]

Watching the bookies rather than the polls....AZ has swung from likely modest Republican to modest Democrat during the past week. Popular vote has widened significantly for the Democrats from -450 to -900. Both bode well for Biden. This is at odds with the pollsters....who seem to be shameless covering their asses, and reigning in their figures a bit. Frankly I think any pollster off by a certain margin should be fined as their shameless tactics are definitely deliberate and a form of election interference as it is an obvious form of misinformation.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/31/arizona-poll-donald-trump-48-9-joe-biden-46-4/

 

Fluid situation in Arizona - Trafalgar group had the most accurate polling during the 2016 election - so we will see. Looks like Trump to me.

 

Arizona Poll: Donald Trump 48.9%, Joe Biden 46.4%

 

The latest Trafalgar Group survey comes on the heels of Trump’s two stops in the state, holding rallies in Bullhead City and Goodyear on Wednesday.

 

You gotta hand it to Trump for hard work - Joe hides in his basement while Trump does 3-5 Campaign stops a day. Incredible.

[rb]

As a Republican, when you hope to win Arizona, you've lost the election.

[cubsfan]

As a Republican, when you hope to win Arizona, you've lost the election.

 

Thanks Genius - I'm responding to Gregmal's clip on AZ going Blue.

[no_free_lunch]

He did win Florida in the end.  Florida usually decides the election, however it is not enough to overcome deception and cheating. 

 

Sorry if that has already been posted, I can't keep up with the threads.  Antrim Country did a hand count and reposted with trump gaining over 20% from the initial results.

 

The Antrim County Clerk’s Office has been reviewing their Election Day results after County Clerk Sheryl Guy said she became aware of “apparently skewed results.”

 

Guy said staff is currently working with township officials and with Election Source, the company that provides the voting software programs and hardware, to search out any possible discrepancies.

 

“By this afternoon, we expect to have a clear answer and a clear plan of action addressing any issue,” Guy said, “Until then we are asking all interested parties to bear with us while we get to the bottom of this.”

 

..

 

“The irregularities reported this morning are incredibly troubling, especially given how close the election results are in Michigan,” Cox said. “At this point, it is unclear whether or not these issues were caused by incompetence or corruption, but the fact that they exist is of great concern, and the Michigan Republican Party will spare no expense to expose the truth of what happened in yesterday’s election.”

 

https://upnorthlive.com/news/local/antrim-county-clerks-office-to-review-ballots-following-report-of-skewed-results

 

How can you have skewed results.  It is impossible.  The concept of any kind of skew is not applicable to election results.  It's supposed to be a fixed number.  Skew implies you were estimating.  This doesn't make any sense unless there is fraud.

 

Don't give up Republicans.  It's not over.  You are so close in so many states.  Every vote in these contested states needs to be verified.

 

Look what you are up against.  Do you recall how people were/are posting pictures of Trump mutilated?  There was an open resistance movement to him since November 4, 2016.  Really, we are force fed to believe there was no fraud, no interference.    I would keep fighting.

[Parsad]

He did win Florida in the end.  Florida usually decides the election, however it is not enough to overcome deception and cheating. 

 

Sorry if that has already been posted, I can't keep up with the threads.  Antrim Country did a hand count and reposted with trump gaining over 20% from the initial results.

 

The Antrim County Clerk’s Office has been reviewing their Election Day results after County Clerk Sheryl Guy said she became aware of “apparently skewed results.”

 

Guy said staff is currently working with township officials and with Election Source, the company that provides the voting software programs and hardware, to search out any possible discrepancies.

 

“By this afternoon, we expect to have a clear answer and a clear plan of action addressing any issue,” Guy said, “Until then we are asking all interested parties to bear with us while we get to the bottom of this.”

 

..

 

“The irregularities reported this morning are incredibly troubling, especially given how close the election results are in Michigan,” Cox said. “At this point, it is unclear whether or not these issues were caused by incompetence or corruption, but the fact that they exist is of great concern, and the Michigan Republican Party will spare no expense to expose the truth of what happened in yesterday’s election.”

 

https://upnorthlive.com/news/local/antrim-county-clerks-office-to-review-ballots-following-report-of-skewed-results

 

How can you have skewed results.  It is impossible.  The concept of any kind of skew is not applicable to election results.  It's supposed to be a fixed number.  Skew implies you were estimating.  This doesn't make any sense unless there is fraud.

 

Don't give up Republicans.  It's not over.  You are so close in so many states.  Every vote in these contested states needs to be verified.

 

Look what you are up against.  Do you recall how people were/are posting pictures of Trump mutilated?  There was an open resistance movement to him since November 4, 2016.  Really, we are force fed to believe there was no fraud, no interference.    I would keep fighting.

 

Yes, there was a technical error with the computer system they were using.  Nothing nefarious...even reported by Fox News...but they will match up the paper count against the computer count in all jurisdictions to make sure they got it right.  So whether Biden wins or Trump wins, both sides should stick the whole conspiracy thing up their butts!  Live with whatever the results end up being!  Cheers!

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/michigan-gop-chairwoman-says-software-glitch-tallied-thousands-of-republican-votes-as-democrat

[Parsad]

More false assertions, videos and bullshit about voting irregularities that are putting people's safety at risk by reckless distributions of fake videos:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/georgia-poll-worker-hiding-false-035008939.html

 

Cheers!

[cubsfan]

Giuliani brought down the NY Mafia. He understands organized criminal racketeering and how to prosecute that case.

Jay Sekulow understands how to argue before the US Supreme Court.

 

This promises to get very interesting , regardless of whether Trump wins or loses.

[no_free_lunch]

What happened in Antrim County needs to be explained. If I was American I would be FURIOUS.  Think about what happened there.  Thus machine spits out county level summary numbers and that's that.  They only noticed because the discrepancy was so large. This implies there is no validation mechanism.  You cannot trust any of the numbers unless they are hand counted with representative from both parties.

 

Please don't go around insisting nothing is wrong. Cubsfan is right, its like dealing with the  mob.  People, not just parsad, are insisting we can't even question the results.  Imagine if someone's kid got abused by a teacher, you found out and are then told you can't question or get warrants  to see if any other teachers are involved because it would compromise the reputation of the school system.  Excuse me?

 

Keep fighting guys.  Don't give way to conspiracy but insist on a proper non machine count.

[Parsad]

What happened in Antrim County needs to be explained. If I was American I would be FURIOUS.  Think about what happened there.  Thus machine spits out county level summary numbers and that's that.  They only noticed because the discrepancy was so large. This implies there is no validation mechanism.  You cannot trust any of the numbers unless they are hand counted with representative from both parties.

 

Please don't go around insisting nothing is wrong. Cubsfan is right, its like dealing with the  mob.  People, not just parsad, are insisting we can't even question the results.  Imagine if someone's kid got abused by a teacher, you found out and are then told you can't question or get warrants  to see if any other teachers are involved because it would compromise the reputation of the school system.  Excuse me?

 

Keep fighting guys.  Don't give way to conspiracy but insist on a proper non machine count.

 

You've essentially had four years of kids being abused by a teacher...that's why Trump had to go!  And your conspiracy theories are bunk!  Just like Trump's inflated numbers around almost everything he talked about.  And you won't see Hunter Biden sitting next to Joe Biden in the Oval Office!  Cheers!

[no_free_lunch]

I will remind you Parsad, I am laying out an argument with facts and links.  You are free to challenge those facts.  All you are doing is trying to sweep this under the rug.  Calling facts a "conspiracy theory" is an attempt at censorship.

 

Here is another "glitch".

 

The counties use voting machines made by Dominion Voting Systems and electronic poll books — used to sign in voters — made by KnowInk.

 

The companies “uploaded something last night, which is not normal, and it caused a glitch,” said Marcia Ridley, elections supervisor at Spalding County Board of Election. That glitch prevented pollworkers from using the pollbooks to program smart cards that the voters insert into the voting machines.

 

Ridley said that a representative from the two companies called her after poll workers began having problems with the equipment Tuesday morning and said the problem was due to an upload to the machines by one of their technicians overnight.

 

“That is something that they don’t ever do. I’ve never seen them update anything the day before the election,” Ridley said. Ridley said she did not know what the upload contained.

 

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/georgia-election-machine-glitch-434065

 

 

We accept politico links around here right?  or is this far-right hate speech?

[cwericb]

I will remind you Parsad, I am laying out an argument with facts and links.  You are free to challenge those facts.  All you are doing is trying to sweep this under the rug.  Calling facts a "conspiracy theory" is an attempt at censorship.

 

Here is another "glitch".

 

The counties use voting machines made by Dominion Voting Systems and electronic poll books — used to sign in voters — made by KnowInk.

 

The companies “uploaded something last night, which is not normal, and it caused a glitch,” said Marcia Ridley, elections supervisor at Spalding County Board of Election. That glitch prevented pollworkers from using the pollbooks to program smart cards that the voters insert into the voting machines.

 

Ridley said that a representative from the two companies called her after poll workers began having problems with the equipment Tuesday morning and said the problem was due to an upload to the machines by one of their technicians overnight.

 

“That is something that they don’t ever do. I’ve never seen them update anything the day before the election,” Ridley said. Ridley said she did not know what the upload contained.

 

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/georgia-election-machine-glitch-434065

 

 

We accept politico links around here right?  or is this far-right hate speech?

 

I think you are confusing accusations with facts. You might wait for the accusations to be investigated and proven before using them as facts and evidence of wrongdoing.

[no_free_lunch]

When you look at the stats the Michigan 2020 election results look very unusual in certain counties in comparison to the early voting numbers.  It all comes down to mail-in statistics and their predictive ability of the Democratic numbers. 

 

For reference mail -in stats on a county by county basis are available here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MI.html. 

You also have final results on a county by county basis here: https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/michigan/

 

As we all know, main-in voters have a high tendency to vote Biden.  This is not just speculation, if you take the ratio of mail-in votes relative to registered voters for a county it provides a rough estimate of how the democrats will do.  I urge you to try it yourself using the above links.

 

These are the results for the first few counties :

 

Alcona: 33% mail-in requested, 30% biden votes.

 

Alger: 31.5% mail-in requested, 40% biden votes.

 

Allergan: 36.7% mail-in requested, 36.5% biden votes.

 

Alpena: 33.2% mail-in requested, 35.4% biden votes.

 

You can see there is some variability but the percentage of mail-in does correlate with the biden numbers.  Now, let's have a look at Wayne county, which at 1.35m registered voters completely dwarfs all other counties.

 

Wayne: 41% mail-in requested, 68.1% biden votes.

 

What happened in Wayne county?  Why did the relationship break-down so dramatically and in the democrats favour.  In fact, if this relationship had held in just this county then Trump would have comfortably won Michigan.  I don't have any more data so I can't dig any deeper but this is as suspicious as can be.  I would demand a recount.  I can't prove it but if the Michigan vote count was a stock I would short it, it smells very fishy.