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Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?


LearningMachine
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18 U.S.C. 1001(a) provides for five years of imprisonment for each false statement made to the government.  For someone who is not the President or a crony, prosecutions under the statute happen often without making it big news in the media.

 

To prevent prosecution, I had mentioned earlier that for Trump, winning this election might be more important than life and death, because he knows how many false statements to the government he has made and advice he must be getting from counsel regarding this.  Trump has very little to lose by trying to violate more laws to try to stay in office, and he will try. However, if he sees that there is no chance of it working, there is a probability that he will flee. 

 

I'm curious what folks think is the probability of that event, and the likely country he will flee to?

 

Because the presidency terminates on Jan 20, 2021 if he doesn't win the election according to the 20th Amendment to the Constitution (regardless of what Trump might say), he will probably try to flee before then.  There is a possibility prosecutors might try to get an injunction from him being able to flee ahead of that.

 

Hold behold, Trump is now mentioning the same thing in public that he might leave the country if Biden wins, and articles are starting to pop up in media about several prosecutions having been stayed during the term of presidency.

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According to the bookies, there is a greater chance Joe Biden drops out before the election, than Trump. Hoebag Harris is +15000, and you can take Pence for +17000. I will inquire about odds on fleeing before Jan 2021. With the NYP story Joe might flee too! Who knows? Nothing like a good conspiracy theory/fantastical story though, I agree.

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According to the bookies, there is a greater chance Joe Biden drops out before the election, than Trump. Hoebag Harris is +15000, and you can take Pence for +17000. I will inquire about odds on fleeing before Jan 2021. With the NYP story Joe might flee too! Who knows? Nothing like a good conspiracy theory/fantastical story though, I agree.

 

I don't see how Joe's story in NYP violates 18 USC 1031(a).  Trump's crony Barr has already looked into it and decided there is nothing he can prosecute.

 

On the other hand with Trump, looks like there are clear tax forms filled out where he had wrong values that can be clearly proven to be different from real values, and meet the bar for prosecution.

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Learningmachine, if Im remembering you correctly, you've done some quality work on a few of the office REITs...how do you value private assets? You and I both know the answer to this. Fair values are usually ranges, and sensitive to inputs and also of course, market movements. Everything it seems Trump does from an accounting and finance perspective, seems very aggressive but very par for the course when it comes to the RE folks. Maybe it appears his values are off...tell me, as a prosecutor...where's you angle? He used replacement value instead of an NOI derived figure? He used too aggressive a cap rate? He used an old appraisal? There's very little that sticks in terms of proving anything that puts him behind bars, even if everyone "knows" what game he was playing.

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The possible outcomes on any number of topics/issues we will see on election day and after are interesting to think about. Trump or Biden win? Clear cut result or disputed? If disputed, how disputed?

 

If Trump loses that is where things get wickedly interesting. What does he do? Does he flee to another country? (Hadn’t thought about that one). Does he resign / get pardoned by Pence before new President is sworn in? What is Trump’s role in Republican party in defeat? How does Republican party establishment respond? Do they try and kick Trump to the curb?

 

Once Biden is sworn in (assuming he wins) what is Trump’s role in national politics? Will Trump be even more vocal with the shackles of government removed? Will Trump be even more influential/revered with his core base of support? Will Trump be even more of a disruptive force as a private citizen?

 

There is a case to be made that in defeat Trump will continue to hold enormous power. He might not need to flee :-)

 

PS: and the next Presidential election is only 4 short years away! What are the odds Trump runs again in 4 years if he loses this election?

 

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Cardboard, I don't mind you voicing your opinion, but often you tread masochistic, racist or homophobic thin lines.  For example, this post and turning Obama into Obounga is borderline racist.  The next comment that treads that line gets you permanently kicked out! 

 

Also, the whole birther thing, which even Trump doesn't support anymore is also blatantly racist.  If Obama was white, you wouldn't even suggest it...like no one suggests it with Trump.  How you twist names for Kamala, or other minority politicians, also underlines either a complete lack of respect for other people, or racist tendencies. 

 

It won't be tolerated anymore.  Cheers!

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Learningmachine, if Im remembering you correctly, you've done some quality work on a few of the office REITs...how do you value private assets? You and I both know the answer to this. Fair values are usually ranges, and sensitive to inputs and also of course, market movements. Everything it seems Trump does from an accounting and finance perspective, seems very aggressive but very par for the course when it comes to the RE folks. Maybe it appears his values are off...tell me, as a prosecutor...where's you angle? He used replacement value instead of an NOI derived figure? He used too aggressive a cap rate? He used an old appraisal? There's very little that sticks in terms of proving anything that puts him behind bars, even if everyone "knows" what game he was playing.

 

Gregmal, I don't think Trump will be prosecuted on something that is gray area.  I think many independent prosecutors will do a good job at sticking to what is provable very clearly for independent triers of fact (Judges, Juries) to come to a decision that Trump did make many false statements to the government. 

 

Given Trump's history of making many false and inaccurate statements, I put the probability above 95% that if prosecutors are able to go ahead when Trump is a normal citizen, they will be able to prove to independent triers of fact (Judges, Juries) that Trump made many false statements to the government.

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The possible outcomes on any number of topics/issues we will see on election day and after are interesting to think about. Trump or Biden win? Clear cut result or disputed? If disputed, how disputed?

 

If Trump loses that is where things get wickedly interesting. What does he do? Does he flee to another country? (Hadn’t thought about that one). Does he resign / get pardoned by Pence before new President is sworn in? What is Trump’s role in Republican party in defeat? How does Republican party establishment respond? Do they try and kick Trump to the curb?

 

Once Biden is sworn in (assuming he wins) what is Trump’s role in national politics? Will Trump be even more vocal with the shackles of government removed? Will Trump be even more influential/revered with his core base of support? Will Trump be even more of a disruptive force as a private citizen?

 

There is a case to be made that in defeat Trump will continue to hold enormous power. He might not need to flee :-)

 

PS: and the next Presidential election is only 4 short years away! What are the odds Trump runs again in 4 years if he loses this election?

 

Viking, I agree Trump will continue to hold enormous power to incite violence or start civil war.  However, because he will lose protections of the Presidency, prosecutors will move in quickly to charge him for making false statements in the past, and for aiding and abetting violence if he does so.

 

If he was negotiating with a single person representing all of U.S. and state government branches, maybe he could have used threat of violence, but that won't be the case.  All independent prosecutors will be just following the law that is already written, and those laws cannot be changed for one person.

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^Yeah, but the problem you are going to have:  Once Amy Barrett gets confirmed, Trump will have his court stacked. If/when convicted, he'll just

eventually appeal to his Supreme Court and will go off Scott Free....sucks doesn't it??

 

Yes, he and Barr have been working on putting holes in the foundations of our democracy, brick by brick. 

 

One thing that gives me hope is Supreme Court rules on issues of law, e.g. interpretation of constitution, whether laws are constitutional, etc.  So, Supreme Court cannot say the trier of fact below determined facts incorrectly, but they can say that new law of the land is that ex-president cannot be prosecuted.  However, if they do something like that, they will be setting precedence for the future.  So, they will have to be careful to say the equivalent of something like president is above the law.

 

I feel some hope with the Supreme Court Justices, even if nominated by Republicans, to protect our democracy because they will be somewhat bound by past precedence and will have to be cognizant of setting precedence for the future.

 

 

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^Yeah, but the problem you are going to have:  Once Amy Barrett gets confirmed, Trump will have his court stacked. If/when convicted, he'll just

eventually appeal to his Supreme Court and will go off Scott Free....sucks doesn't it??

 

Yes, he and Barr have been working on putting holes in the foundations of our democracy, brick by brick. 

 

One thing that gives me hope is Supreme Court rules on issues of law, e.g. interpretation of constitution, whether laws are constitutional, etc.  So, Supreme Court cannot say the trier of fact below determined facts incorrectly, but they can say that new law of the land is that ex-president cannot be prosecuted.  However, if they do something like that, they will be setting precedence for the future.  So, they will have to be careful to say the equivalent of something like president is above the law.

 

I feel some hope with the Supreme Court Justices, even if nominated by Republicans, to protect our democracy because they will be somewhat bound by past precedence and will have to be cognizant of setting precedence for the future.

 

If the supreme court gets obviously partisan (which i doubt) than voters will be ok with Biden stacking supreme court.

 

But regardless Democrats have the green light to do whatever their numbers allow. Trump/Republicans have said historical precedents no longer matter.

 

 

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^Yeah, but the problem you are going to have:  Once Amy Barrett gets confirmed, Trump will have his court stacked. If/when convicted, he'll just

eventually appeal to his Supreme Court and will go off Scott Free....sucks doesn't it??

 

Yes, he and Barr have been working on putting holes in the foundations of our democracy, brick by brick. 

 

One thing that gives me hope is Supreme Court rules on issues of law, e.g. interpretation of constitution, whether laws are constitutional, etc.  So, Supreme Court cannot say the trier of fact below determined facts incorrectly, but they can say that new law of the land is that ex-president cannot be prosecuted.  However, if they do something like that, they will be setting precedence for the future.  So, they will have to be careful to say the equivalent of something like president is above the law.

 

I feel some hope with the Supreme Court Justices, even if nominated by Republicans, to protect our democracy because they will be somewhat bound by past precedence and will have to be cognizant of setting precedence for the future.

 

If the supreme court gets obviously partisan (which i doubt) than voters will be ok with Biden stacking supreme court.

 

But regardless Democrats have the green light to do whatever their numbers allow. Trump/Republicans have said historical precedents no longer matter.

 

Just to clarify, I think we might have mixed two types of precedence (1) What presidents and the majority party in the senate/congress follow, etc., and (2) Written case law, i.e. all levels of courts needing to be consistent with earlier written decisions, and when deviating, having to provide written reasoning, which will form written precedence for future cases.

 

While Trump/Republicans may choose to ignore #1, #2 is much stronger and forms one of the most established principles in all federal and state courts.  Also, because it has to be written, it becomes subject to scrutiny from a lot of eyes.  So, courts have to go to extreme lengths to make sure their written decisions are logically solid to withstand scrutiny from thousands of lawyers who can see through inaccurate statements and conclusions that are not entirely logical (unlike general public), now and in the future.  Having inaccurate statements or illogical conclusions, e.g. the kinds of things that Trump, Barr and Republicans do, won't go by easily in courts' written decisions. 

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Curious how the only names you guys don’t spell properly are Obama and Kamala? I know that for some reason Republicans and Fox News can’t pronounce the names but you can’t even spell them?

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Curious how the only names you guys don’t spell properly are Obama and Kamala? I know that for some reason Republicans and Fox News can’t pronounce the names but you can’t even spell them?

 

It must be because only racists mispronounce those names!

 

 

 

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Cardboard, I don't mind you voicing your opinion, but often you tread masochistic, racist or homophobic thin lines.  For example, this post and turning Obama into Obounga is borderline racist.  The next comment that treads that line gets you permanently kicked out! 

 

Also, the whole birther thing, which even Trump doesn't support anymore is also blatantly racist.  If Obama was white, you wouldn't even suggest it...like no one suggests it with Trump.  How you twist names for Kamala, or other minority politicians, also underlines either a complete lack of respect for other people, or racist tendencies. 

 

It won't be tolerated anymore.  Cheers!

 

Parsed YOU are part of the problem. The warnings should have been given the first time it happened. You let it go on for so long that they assumed it was ok. Why are there even temporary bans for rascist and sexist comments? Why are there temporary bans for people who wish ill on others? Why isn’t it an instant permaban? Why have you been ok with these comments for so long?

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Curious how the only names you guys don’t spell properly are Obama and Kamala? I know that for some reason Republicans and Fox News can’t pronounce the names but you can’t even spell them?

 

It must be because only racists mispronounce those names!

 

 

Yeah cause that’s the same as

 

 

How difficult is it to get right when you type it? What’s you excuse there? Why have you been using “Koomala” when in the same sentence you type the names of other Democrats properly?

 

 

example.

Yes Viking, that is true, but choosing socialism over a conservative you dont like is a little bit of a stretch. And as Ive said before, I try not to lump you into the same category as some of the other fruitcakes....but the position can be perplexing when observing it the way you do. How does any "conservative" support a solution that includes the likes of Elizabeth Warren, Koomala Harris, etc? You dont like Trump; fine. Perfectly reasonable. Dislike him so much you choose to support the antithesis of what you claim to be?(conservative)..tough sell.

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Curious how the only names you guys don’t spell properly are Obama and Kamala? I know that for some reason Republicans and Fox News can’t pronounce the names but you can’t even spell them?

 

It must be because only racists mispronounce those names!

 

 

It's not mispronunciation, but alludes to African descent by misconstruing the name.  The same way people used to turn Obama into Osama to try and bring up a Muslim link to the President.  It's a subtle racist gesture.  Cheers!

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Curious how the only names you guys don’t spell properly are Obama and Kamala? I know that for some reason Republicans and Fox News can’t pronounce the names but you can’t even spell them?

 

It must be because only racists mispronounce those names!

 

 

It's not mispronunciation, but alludes to African descent by misconstruing the name.  The same way people used to turn Obama into Osama to try and bring up a Muslim link to the President.  It's a subtle racist gesture.  Cheers!

 

Yea but Koomala isn't African Sanjeev.

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Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

 

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

 

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

 

Cardboard

 

Curious how the only names you guys don’t spell properly are Obama and Kamala? I know that for some reason Republicans and Fox News can’t pronounce the names but you can’t even spell them?

 

It must be because only racists mispronounce those names!

 

 

It's not mispronunciation, but alludes to African descent by misconstruing the name.  The same way people used to turn Obama into Osama to try and bring up a Muslim link to the President.  It's a subtle racist gesture.  Cheers!

 

Yea but Koomala isn't African Sanjeev.

 

Kamala isn't African...it's Indian.  But Koomala makes allusions to Kamala's African-Jamaican background by mispronouncing her name.  That she is not somehow American or born American.  Cheers!

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