Jump to content

US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day


Viking
 Share

Recommended Posts

As we get closer to the US election i thought it would be useful to create a thread to capture what is going on with respect to the rules by state. Some countries, like Canada, national election are managed across the country by one body so the process is pretty straight forward leading up to and deciding a winner on election night.

 

In the US the 50 states each do their own thing. And the virus adds more complexity with many more people choosing to mail in their ballot. And one more wrinkle? The exact process is not set in stone given the many legal challenges happening. I thought it would be useful to start a thread to explain how the actual election is going to work and how it may play out in November. As much as possible please post source material to support your thinking :-)

 

As an investor i am getting more interested in understanding what might happen on election night. So many possibilities. As the article below indicates it will likely be a very messy process and take a week or longer to decide a winner.

 

Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night

- https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-north-carolina-likely-wont-be-called-on-election-night/

 

The 2020 election is already underway in several states, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t still changing. (We’re tracking them all here.) In the past eight days alone, four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received.

- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence (e.g., a postmark) exists that they were mailed after Election Day (Nov. 3).

A state judge in Michigan decreed that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election (Nov. 2) and received by Nov. 17.

- A federal judge ordered Wisconsin to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9.

- And North Carolina reached a tentative court settlement with plaintiffs that, among other things, would allow ballots to count as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12. (However, the settlement still needs to be approved by a judge before it officially goes into effect.)

 

Importantly, however, these changes aren’t set in stone; Republicans may continue to contest them in court. At the very least, GOP legislative leaders in Wisconsin have already appealed that decision to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, and Republicans say they plan to take the Pennsylvania decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

 

Articles Conclusion:

If Biden is leading in those states in the wee hours of Nov. 4, that may be the ballgame: Because mail ballots are expected to lean heavily Democratic, his margin will probably only increase as more mail ballots are counted. But if Trump is leading in these states, we could be in for days of waiting on the edge of our seat for every ballot dump. Since this is a distinct possibility, we must continue to prepare ourselves for a world in which we won’t know the identity of the next president until mid-November.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 550
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

As we get closer to the US election i thought it would be useful to create a thread to capture what is going on with respect to the rules by state. Some countries, like Canada, national election are managed across the country by one body so the process is pretty straight forward leading up to and deciding a winner on election night.

 

In the US the 50 states each do their own thing. And the virus adds more complexity with many more people choosing to mail in their ballot. And one more wrinkle? The exact process is not set in stone given the many legal challenges happening. I thought it would be useful to start a thread to explain how the actual election is going to work and how it may play out in November. As much as possible please post source material to support your thinking :-)

 

As an investor i am getting more interested in understanding what might happen on election night. So many possibilities. As the article below indicates it will likely be a very messy process and take a week or longer to decide a winner.

 

Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night

- https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-north-carolina-likely-wont-be-called-on-election-night/

 

The 2020 election is already underway in several states, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t still changing. (We’re tracking them all here.) In the past eight days alone, four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received.

- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence (e.g., a postmark) exists that they were mailed after Election Day (Nov. 3).

A state judge in Michigan decreed that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election (Nov. 2) and received by Nov. 17.

- A federal judge ordered Wisconsin to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9.

- And North Carolina reached a tentative court settlement with plaintiffs that, among other things, would allow ballots to count as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12. (However, the settlement still needs to be approved by a judge before it officially goes into effect.)

 

Importantly, however, these changes aren’t set in stone; Republicans may continue to contest them in court. At the very least, GOP legislative leaders in Wisconsin have already appealed that decision to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, and Republicans say they plan to take the Pennsylvania decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

 

Articles Conclusion:

If Biden is leading in those states in the wee hours of Nov. 4, that may be the ballgame: Because mail ballots are expected to lean heavily Democratic, his margin will probably only increase as more mail ballots are counted. But if Trump is leading in these states, we could be in for days of waiting on the edge of our seat for every ballot dump. Since this is a distinct possibility, we must continue to prepare ourselves for a world in which we won’t know the identity of the next president until mid-November.

 

 

I understand the point you are trying to make, but overall, I think the bold shows the success of the propaganda machines. If Biden is leading on election night, its game over. If Trump is leading, we still need to wait for a real outcome. Essentially, the ground work has been laid to completely delegitimize a Trump victory. For a second time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^ Yep - here we go again.

 

The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

 

It's clear that mail in balloting is something the systems of our country (Post office, etc) are nor ready for.

Using old lists, with dead or moved voters, and mailing those out so they pile up at apartment building, etc - so they can be fraudulently returned.

 

The Democrats are scared and know EXACTLY what they are doing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greg, i am not trying to make a point with the article. What your take away is up to you. As more articles and links are provided we should be able to get a more complete picture of all the variables at play.

 

Guys, please provide links/facts to support your concerns. Greg, my understanding is it is generally believed that it is more likely that Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans. The reason, and this is important, is because of repeated Trump’s concerns about mail in fraud. He has been telling Republicans that voting by mail is terrible and so it makes sense many Republican voters would decide not to do it. This is not to say that no Republican voters will Vote by mail. Just that Democrats mail in votes will likely be > 50%. We will learn after the election if this was true or not.

 

Now if this line of reasoning is faulty please explain why?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys, please provide links/facts to support your concerns

 

it is more likely that Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans

 

This is the key point, what is your evidence?

 

Some resources to help you out:

 

https://electionupdates.caltech.edu/2020/03/20/some-demographics-on-voting-by-mail/

https://www.wired.com/story/weird-partisan-math-vote-by-mail/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/us/vote-by-mail-coronavirus.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This article (first one i found when i looked) suggests mail in voting does not = higher turnout for either party. It does suggest Democrats MAY be more likely to vote by mail because they trust it and do not want to vote in person due to the virus. Republicans MAY be less likely to vote my mail because they do not trust it and they are less concerned about the virus and voting in person.

 

If this is true it means Republicans COULD see peak numbers (%) on election night. And as more mail ballots are counted, Democrat % COULD increase in the days after the election. But after all votes are counted (in person and by mail) neither party has an advantage. But it could take a week or two. To count all the votes.

 

—————————-

Do Republicans or Democrats benefit from mail-in voting? It turns out, neither

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/do-republicans-or-democrats-benefit-mail-voting-it-turns-out-neither

 

“It’s possible, Barber says, that Republican rhetoric could depress vote by mail among their members and cause a partisan split. “The problem is that Donald Trump has created a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.”

 

There are already signs that this is happening. In Florida, requests for mail-in ballots are usually evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, says Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida. This year, 2 million Florida Democrats had requested mail ballots as of 25 August, compared with 1.375 million Republicans, according to a website McDonald runs that tracks mail ballot trends. Add to that the uneven ways in which mail-in voting is being rolled out in different states, and McDonald is at a loss to predict how it will influence the election outcome. “It’s completely uncharted territory,” he says.

 

There’s also the possibility that Republican reluctance to use mail-in ballots will be offset by Democrats’ avoidance of polling places. In a Texas primary in June, Democratic use of mail-in ballots skyrocketed. But the increase was canceled out by more Republicans voting in person, according to a preprint study by Hall and other Stanford researchers not yet published in a journal. “They’re voting by different modes,” he says. “But they’re not voting more or less.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

 

Provide evidence.

 

Guys - do yourselves a favor - broaden your sources.

 

Try reading Breitbart News, Daily Wire, Saraacarter.com, and National Review - EVERY DAY.

Read them EVERY DAY. Look at the last 60 days - you will find LOTS of instances of MAIL IN voter fraud being reported.

 

If you tell me - "oh those are conservative websites, so I can't believe them" - then I can not help you.

 

The great thing about the "free press" is that these truthtellers are out there reporting shit that does NOT fit the narrative of the MSM

and REMAINS UNREPORTED.

 

If I have time, I will repost - but in the meantime - broaden your horizons and sources and then make a judgement on the stories yourselves.

 

Please DON'T take my word for it. You are all brilliant analysts - so DON'T believe me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

 

Provide evidence.

 

Guys - do yourselves a favor - broaden your sources.

 

Try reading Breitbart News, Daily Wire, Saraacarter.com, and National Review - EVERY DAY.

Read them EVERY DAY. Look at the last 60 days - you will find LOTS of instances of MAIL IN voter fraud being reported.

 

If you tell me - "oh those are conservative websites, so I can't believe them" - then I can not help you.

 

The great thing about the "free press" is that these truthtellers are out there reporting shit that does NOT fit the narrative of the MSM

and REMAINS UNREPORTED.

 

If I have time, I will repost - but in the meantime - broaden your horizons and sources and then make a judgement on the stories yourselves.

 

Please DON'T take my word for it. You are all brilliant analysts - so DON'T believe me.

 

I think i understand. When you make a comment you want readers to go to the various news sites you posted above and try and find the article you read that backs up your position? Please correct me if i am wrong.

 

Another way is you could simple post a link to the article when you read it. Accurate. Simple. Educational. But if that is too complicated or if you are too busy i understand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree there is some validity here. The MSM purposely deletes and erases events that dont fit their narrative. Then only places that do report them, are places the MSM and lefties have successfully branded as "extremist" or "alt right"....Clever, but again, an event is an event and if it happened it doesnt really matter who is reporting, does it?

 

For all the times these places report on, and obsessively declare that "Trump lies"....whos keeping track of Joe's? There's been a number of these same places that have kept count, and it's truly bizarre the degree to which Biden constantly lies, and the things he lies about. I cant blame many lefties for not freaking out the way they do when they read about Trump lying all the time, but definitely, as cubsfan said, broaden the horizon. Just to name a few of the comical/bizarre....Joe Biden has lied about..being a college student at a historically black university.....being arrested on 3! separate occasions....teaching at UPenn...."visiting Afghanistan to honor a Naval officer who he said had rappelled down a ravine while under fire to retrieve the body of a fellow soldier"....and then of course his disastrous bid in the 80s to become President, and of course the series of lies that ended that as well....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree there is some validity here. The MSM purposely deletes and erases events that dont fit their narrative. Then only places that do report them, are places the MSM and lefties have successfully branded as "extremist" or "alt right"....Clever, but again, an event is an event and if it happened it doesnt really matter who is reporting, does it?

 

For all the times these places report on, and obsessively declare that "Trump lies"....whos keeping track of Joe's? There's been a number of these same places that have kept count, and it's truly bizarre the degree to which Biden constantly lies, and the things he lies about. I cant blame many lefties for not freaking out the way they do when they read about Trump lying all the time, but definitely, as cubsfan said, broaden the horizon. Just to name a few of the comical/bizarre....Joe Biden has lied about..being a college student at a historically black university.....being arrested on 3! separate occasions....teaching at UPenn...."visiting Afghanistan to honor a Naval officer who he said had rappelled down a ravine while under fire to retrieve the body of a fellow soldier"....and then of course his disastrous bid in the 80s to become President, and of course the series of lies that ended that as well....

 

The difference is Trump lies at a historic rate. By far more than any other president in US history. Pretty much every day. And usually multiple times every day. Its like comparing a jaywalker with a serial killer. Yes, both people broke the law.

 

Biden has his own issues. This isn’t one of them (in comparison to Trump).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree there is some validity here. The MSM purposely deletes and erases events that dont fit their narrative. Then only places that do report them, are places the MSM and lefties have successfully branded as "extremist" or "alt right"....Clever, but again, an event is an event and if it happened it doesnt really matter who is reporting, does it?

 

For all the times these places report on, and obsessively declare that "Trump lies"....whos keeping track of Joe's? There's been a number of these same places that have kept count, and it's truly bizarre the degree to which Biden constantly lies, and the things he lies about. I cant blame many lefties for not freaking out the way they do when they read about Trump lying all the time, but definitely, as cubsfan said, broaden the horizon. Just to name a few of the comical/bizarre....Joe Biden has lied about..being a college student at a historically black university.....being arrested on 3! separate occasions....teaching at UPenn...."visiting Afghanistan to honor a Naval officer who he said had rappelled down a ravine while under fire to retrieve the body of a fellow soldier"....and then of course his disastrous bid in the 80s to become President, and of course the series of lies that ended that as well....

 

The difference is Trump lies at a historic rate. By far more than any other president in US history. Pretty much every day. And usually multiple times every day. Its like comparing a jaywalker with a serial killer. Yes, both people broke the law.

 

Biden has his own issues. This isn’t one of them (in comparison to Trump).

 

Biden has 40 years in office of blatant lies. I don't think he's been honest about a single thing this campaign. The difference (regarding covid19) is Biden lies to the negative and Trump lies to the positive. Humans and people are inclined to latch onto negative news. Especially in today's environment. I still can't believe people think Trump and Biden are radically different. They are two peas of a pod all the way down to their embellished educations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how the (predictably) NYT losers come out with the tax records right before a huge voter fraud development...which I am sure will be ignored and/or downplayed by liberals. Those dorks were probably so excited about "finally getting" what they thought were Trumps returns...but again, just like the Access Hollywood tape, not many give a shit about the MSM's blatant attempt to drop their "stories" right ahead of an election hoping to manipulate the people.

 

On a separate note, isn't it kind of egregious, on a general level, to have scumbag journalists basically setting out on a mission to secretly, and possibly illegally, obtain an American citizens personal information, and then publish it? Or cuz its Trump we dont care? Probably the later...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how the (predictably) NYT losers come out with the tax records right before a huge voter fraud development...which I am sure will be ignored and/or downplayed by liberals. Those dorks were probably so excited about "finally getting" what they thought were Trumps returns...but again, just like the Access Hollywood tape, not many give a shit about the MSM's blatant attempt to drop their "stories" right ahead of an election hoping to manipulate the people.

 

On a separate note, isn't it kind of egregious, on a general level, to have scumbag journalists basically setting out on a mission to secretly, and possibly illegally, obtain an American citizens personal information, and then publish it? Or cuz its Trump we dont care? Probably the later...

 

Everyone already knew what his tax returns would show. When he was campaigning in 2016 he literally said "I took full advantage of all the tax loopholes like everyone else." Meanwhile Mike Bloomberg is blatantly committing election fraud.....crickets

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how the (predictably) NYT losers come out with the tax records right before a huge voter fraud development...which I am sure will be ignored and/or downplayed by liberals. Those dorks were probably so excited about "finally getting" what they thought were Trumps returns...but again, just like the Access Hollywood tape, not many give a shit about the MSM's blatant attempt to drop their "stories" right ahead of an election hoping to manipulate the people.

 

On a separate note, isn't it kind of egregious, on a general level, to have scumbag journalists basically setting out on a mission to secretly, and possibly illegally, obtain an American citizens personal information, and then publish it? Or cuz its Trump we dont care? Probably the later...

 

Everyone already knew what his tax returns would show. When he was campaigning in 2016 he literally said "I took full advantage of all the tax loopholes like everyone else." Meanwhile Mike Bloomberg is blatantly committing election fraud.....crickets

 

Bbbbut, they're trying so hard! Look at the NYT homepage LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how the (predictably) NYT losers come out with the tax records right before a huge voter fraud development...which I am sure will be ignored and/or downplayed by liberals. Those dorks were probably so excited about "finally getting" what they thought were Trumps returns...but again, just like the Access Hollywood tape, not many give a shit about the MSM's blatant attempt to drop their "stories" right ahead of an election hoping to manipulate the people.

 

On a separate note, isn't it kind of egregious, on a general level, to have scumbag journalists basically setting out on a mission to secretly, and possibly illegally, obtain an American citizens personal information, and then publish it? Or cuz its Trump we dont care? Probably the later...

 

Yawn, another "bombshell report", "we got him now!", "this is the end", blah, blah, blah.....

 

Meanwhile, the real fun will be Tuesday evening with Joe Biden - the only man in Presidential history can destroy his candidacy in 5 minutes,

depending what comes out of his mouth. DNC leadership have to be terrified.  One more "If you don't vote for me, you ain't Black" - and Biden is done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets recap:

 

Claim of "quite alarming" voter fraud related to ballot harvesting - yet to be substantiated

Claim that the mainstream media does not track Biden's accuracy/truthfullness - shown to be incorrect

 

Followed up by the audacity to claim journalists are scumbags.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a small recap for those too lazy to take a little time and do as I suggested:

 

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/27/breaking-project-veritas-ballot-harvesting-minnesota/

 

The video is quite entertaining.

 

Project Veritas Exposes Ilhan Omar Allies in Alleged Ballot Harvesting Operation in Minnesota

 

Video footage captured by Project Veritas shows an operative, Liban Mohamed, bragging about collecting hundreds of ballots.

 

“Numbers do not lie. Numbers do not lie. … You can see my car is full. All these here are absentee ballots. Can’t you see? Look at all these; my car is full,” Mohamed can be heard saying in the video.

 

The video also includes testimony from a whistleblower, Omar Jamal, who called Rep. Omar’s alleged ballot harvesting an “open secret” and also discussed an alleged cash-for-votes scheme organized by staffers of Rep. Omar.

 

“She [ilhan Omar] will do anything that she can do to get elected and she [ilhan Omar] has hundreds of people on the streets doing that,” said Jamal.

 

 

As I mentioned - don't expect to see this reported on "The Most Trusted Name in News" CNN.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets recap:

 

Claim of "quite alarming" voter fraud related to ballot harvesting - yet to be substantiated

Claim that the mainstream media does not track Biden's accuracy/truthfullness - shown to be incorrect

 

Followed up by the audacity to claim journalists are scumbags.

 

"yet to be substantiated" Funny how this is only important when it's an allegation against a democrat.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets recap:

 

Claim of "quite alarming" voter fraud related to ballot harvesting - yet to be substantiated

Claim that the mainstream media does not track Biden's accuracy/truthfullness - shown to be incorrect

 

Followed up by the audacity to claim journalists are scumbags.

 

Yup, you nailed it LC, proof there is no bias!

 

Its amazing how they, with such little effort to occasionally throw out a "lets fact check Biden" so we can say we arent biased, fool people continuously. I must have missed the 20 opinion pieces(now called analysis) that follow every fact check offering nothing but rhetoric to help people form their conclusions...

 

 

And yea, journalists are two bit sleezeball scum, its only fair we treat and disparage them as such. Isn't that what we do with Donald? Fair is fair, no?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets recap:

 

Claim of "quite alarming" voter fraud related to ballot harvesting - yet to be substantiated

Claim that the mainstream media does not track Biden's accuracy/truthfullness - shown to be incorrect

 

Followed up by the audacity to claim journalists are scumbags.

 

"yet to be substantiated" Funny how this is only important when it's an allegation against a democrat.

 

It's important for all citizens - republican or democrat. If it wasn't, Trump would be in jail. But he received due process as he is entitled to, and good for all of us that he did. It shows some parts of the democratic system are still functioning.

 

cubsfan, in terms of your reference. Ballot harvesting itself is not illegal. Illegally voting on behalf of someone else without their consent, or intimidating their vote, is illegal.

 

Important to note that the subject of the video claims project veritas doctored the video and took his comments out of context. I personally can't wait for an investigation to show get to the bottom of it.

 

But as it stands, and as Castanza just rightfully pointed out, folks are still innocent until proven guilty in this country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lets recap:

 

Claim of "quite alarming" voter fraud related to ballot harvesting - yet to be substantiated

Claim that the mainstream media does not track Biden's accuracy/truthfullness - shown to be incorrect

 

Followed up by the audacity to claim journalists are scumbags.

 

"yet to be substantiated" Funny how this is only important when it's an allegation against a democrat.

 

It's important for all citizens - republican or democrat. If it wasn't, Trump would be in jail. But he received due process as he is entitled to, and good for all of us that he did. It shows some parts of the democratic system are still functioning.

 

cubsfan, in terms of your reference. Ballot harvesting itself is not illegal. Illegally voting on behalf of someone else without their consent, or intimidating their vote, is illegal.

 

Important to note that the subject of the video claims project veritas doctored the video and took his comments out of context. I personally can't wait for an investigation to show get to the bottom of it.

 

But as it stands, and as Castanza just rightfully pointed out, folks are still innocent until proven guilty in this country.

 

Who said they are proven guilty?  You have Omars campaign person admitting to the activity - did you expect him to plead guilty after being exposed?

 

The investigation centers around three consistent allegations from community members:

 

1. A complex, widespread ballot buying scheme exists with voters paid $100-$200/vote

 

2. A systematic absentee ballot harvesting organization disenfranchises voters

 

3. Irregularities at polling locations allow illegal ballots to be counted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share




×
×
  • Create New...