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Sanders Presidency - A thought experiment


Vish_ram
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Lets keep the politics aside. I know 99.99% of folks in this forum don't support him or his policies. What if he becomes the POTUS?

 

what is the impact to the economy & market?

 

1) Medicare for All

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Create a Medicare for All, single-payer, national health insurance program to provide everyone in America with comprehensive health care coverage, free at the point of service.

No networks, no premiums, no deductibles, no copays, no surprise bills.

Medicare coverage will be expanded and improved to include: include dental, hearing, vision, and home- and community-based long-term care, in-patient and out-patient services, mental health and substance abuse treatment, reproductive and maternity care, prescription drugs, and more.

Stop the pharmaceutical industry from ripping off the American people by making sure that no one in America pays over $200 a year for the medicine they need by capping what Americans pay for prescription drugs under Medicare for All.

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Impact: Will all HMO's just shut down? Pharma is based on spending (gambling) billions on R&D with hope of getting some drugs approved. An approved drug subsidizes 100 other failed drugs.

 

 

2) Green new deal

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Transform our energy system to 100 percent renewable energy and create 20 million jobs needed to solve the climate crisis.

Ensure a just transition for communities and workers, including fossil fuel workers.

Ensure justice for frontline communities, especially under-resourced groups, communities of color, Native Americans, people with disabilities, children and the elderly.

Save American families money with investments in weatherization, public transportation, modern infrastructure and high-speed broadband.

Commit to reducing emissions throughout the world, including providing $200 billion to the Green Climate Fund, rejoining the Paris Agreement, and reasserting the United States’ leadership in the global fight against climate change.

Invest in conservation and public lands to heal our soils, forests, and prairie lands.

End the greed of the fossil fuel industry and hold them accountable.

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Impact to gas prices.

 

3) Student loan

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Guarantee tuition and debt-free public colleges, universities, HBCUs, Minority Serving Institutions and trade-schools to all.

Cancel all student loan debt for the some 45 million Americans who owe about $1.6 trillion and place a cap on student loan interest rates going forward at 1.88 percent.

Invest $1.3 billion every year in private, non-profit historically black colleges and universities and minority-serving institutions

End equity gaps in higher education attainment. And ensure students are able to cover non-tuition costs of attending school by: expanding Pell Grants to cover non-tuition and fee costs, tripling funding for the Work-Study Program, and more.

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Impact to for-profit colleges, student loan companies etc

 

4) Expand social security

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Expand Social Security benefits for all recipients and protect pensions.

Guarantee home and community based long-term care services.

Protect our most vulnerable seniors by quadrupling funding for the Older Americans Act and expanding other programs seniors rely on.

Expand and train the direct care workforce we need.

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Not even sure what this entails.

 

There are dozen other initiatives like "eliminate all medical debt" etc.

 

It is safe to say that there is an economic impact to every single person living in US. There will be some winners and losers.

 

a) Will deficit spending cause inflation? Gold may be the beneficiary

b) Capital may flee to safe havens. Loss of jobs & vicious cycle starts

 

Democratic socialism aint bad; Look at Norway, Denmark..

The transition from crony predatory capitalism to Democratic socialism will surely be ugly.

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Despite what Trump thinks and is trying to condition people to think, US president is not an all powerful dictator.

 

Most of the policies you mentioned won't become reality even if Sanders becomes president.

 

I know 99.99% of folks in this forum don't support him or his policies.

 

It's good to know things.  ::)

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Agree with Jurgis that most of Sanders' policies will probably be watered down in the event he wins election.

 

Hypothetically:

 

Healthcare - reduced healthcare costs will provide a benefit to consumers and corporations no longer paying this "rent"

Education - reduced consumer interest payments provide a consumer benefit, eventually see outsized tuitions fall which will hurt school endowments (portfolio sales?) and administrator salaries. Probably see these schools look for alternative ways to raise revenues.

Energy - I doubt there will be an impact. Perhaps continued tax breaks for solar/wind but I DOUBT we will be moving off gas anytime soon.

Social security - Increased tax on consumers which is a large net negative; but if healthcare costs truly come down per (1) I am not sure a large social security increase will be needed, as a large part of the elderly expenses is healthcare. So it may be offsetting.

 

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Hey all:

 

I think the markets would go down bigly.

 

I know there would be inflation.  How are we going to pay for everything?  Earn the money?  Borrow the money?  How about simply print it?  Heck we are almost there already.  Expand the Federal budget 10x, we would have to start printing.

 

Gasoline prices would go up tremendously.  Fracking & offshore drilling ended or SEVERELY curtailed.  We would probably have to start importing oil again.

 

There most likely would be changes to our form of government.  With that much change going on, people who are losing their wealth, livelihood, jobs, and so on might object.  Civil unrest?

 

I think there would be lots of losers, hard to say who would be the winner (other than high end government officials).

 

I also think there would be lots of 2nd and 3rd order effects that nobody can think of at this point.

 

 

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Regarding Sanders’ $16 trillion energy investment to be carbon-free by 2030...

 

I haven’t heard Bernie say anything about giving the electricity away for free.

 

Does it really expand the deficit if it pays for itself and more?

 

Destroy a whole lot of existing private wealth?  It will of course do that.

 

He’s also exaggerating greatly.  8% of carbon emissions come from cement, and he has no fix for that.  And there will be no electric powered aircraft.

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Hey all:

 

I think the markets would go down bigly.

 

I know there would be inflation.  How are we going to pay for everything?  Earn the money?  Borrow the money?  How about simply print it?  Heck we are almost there already.  Expand the Federal budget 10x, we would have to start printing.

 

Gasoline prices would go up tremendously.  Fracking & offshore drilling ended or SEVERELY curtailed.  We would probably have to start importing oil again.

 

There most likely would be changes to our form of government.  With that much change going on, people who are losing their wealth, livelihood, jobs, and so on might object.  Civil unrest?

 

I think there would be lots of losers, hard to say who would be the winner (other than high end government officials).

 

I also think there would be lots of 2nd and 3rd order effects that nobody can think of at this point.

 

 

 

We can’t pay for Trump’s budget either. 5% deficit in the strongest economy ever. Nothing new here. I do think that if Bernie is elected, the market will go down first. What happens next may not be that straightforward.

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"Despite what Trump thinks and is trying to condition people to think, US president is not an all powerful dictator.

 

Most of the policies you mentioned won't become reality even if Sanders becomes president."

 

Amazed that we read stuff like this or that a new President means nothing or no power yet we have heard nothing but, take out Trump from all the socialists, "afraid to be deported" and never-Trump for almost 4 years now.

 

If the President has no power and doesn't set the agenda of the country then WTF was this incessant whining all about?

 

My view of a Sanders presidency is that it would cause a severe blow to U.S. markets. U.S. credit ratings and overall well being of U.S. citizens.

 

And for those who try to water it down, current Democrat controlled congress which also has a never seen before high % of die-hard socialists all too eager to put into laws these crazy ideas are there for 2 1/2 more years and a few changes in the Senate could also tilt it to Democrats controlled.

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Hey all:

 

I think the markets would go down bigly.

 

I know there would be inflation.  How are we going to pay for everything?  Earn the money?  Borrow the money?  How about simply print it?  Heck we are almost there already.  Expand the Federal budget 10x, we would have to start printing.

 

Gasoline prices would go up tremendously.  Fracking & offshore drilling ended or SEVERELY curtailed.  We would probably have to start importing oil again.

 

There most likely would be changes to our form of government.  With that much change going on, people who are losing their wealth, livelihood, jobs, and so on might object.  Civil unrest?

 

I think there would be lots of losers, hard to say who would be the winner (other than high end government officials).

 

I also think there would be lots of 2nd and 3rd order effects that nobody can think of at this point.

 

 

 

We can’t pay for Trump’s budget either. 5% deficit in the strongest economy ever. Nothing new here. I do think that if Bernie is elected, the market will go down first. What happens next may not be that straightforward.

Spekulatius:

 

So you basically agree with me then.

 

One big difference is that at this point in time, the USA is able run it's budget by taxing AND borrowing a substantial amount of dough.

 

If Sanders were to be elected and have his policies get through, we would tax/raise a ton of money, borrow a ton of money (all that we could).  These two things would not be anywhere near enough though, so we would simply start printing presses to pay the bills.  That would work great for a year or two, but things would fall apart eventually, they always do in with those type of regimes.

 

Of course, Bernie would have all sorts of excuses and people/things to blame.  It is "big pharma", "military industrial complex", greedy profiteers and "Mars Men" who are screwing things up.

 

Heck, if Bernie is elected, Trump's border wall may have to be used to keep people INSIDE the USA.  Of course, that is usually the case with people like Bernie (E. Germany, Cuba, N. Korea).

 

As for secondary/tertiary effects, if some Democrats strongly dislike him, can you imagine what "right wingers" & Republicans think of Bernie?  Of course, the feeling is mutual.  A couple of Bernie staffers have been caught on tape talking about enacting re-education camps and gulags.

 

Going to be an interesting election cycle!

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Bernie is responsible for killing half the population of the United States.  At least according to one of the Bidens.  That's a larger body count even than most of Bernie's heroes.

 

Biden Suggests Bernie Sanders Partially Responsible for 150 Million Gun Deaths

https://reason.com/2020/02/25/biden-suggests-bernie-sanders-partially-responsible-for-150-million-gun-deaths-argues-for-renewed-assault-weapons-ban/

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I know we're busy talking about coronavirus but one thing to mention when we're talking about "how will bernie pay for all this stuff"

 

Let's remember just the war in iraq has cost somewhere between 800B and 1.1T:

 

The costs of the 2003–2010 Iraq War are often contested, as academics and critics have unearthed many hidden costs not represented in official estimates. The most recent major report on these costs come from Brown University in the form of the Costs of War, which totaled just over $1.1 trillion. The United States Department of Defense's direct spending on Iraq totaled at least $757.8 billion, but also highlighting the complementary costs at home, such as interest paid on the funds borrowed to finance the wars.

 

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