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Guest cherzeca
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Guest cherzeca

the Quds commander hit has introduced more uncertainty to the market but my take is that the Middle East has been problematic for a long time and will be highly problematic for a long time, and the market will absorb this hit in stride. so short term a small investment event and longer term an investment nonevent (or even a plus if you think the market needed to lance some of its steam to set up for more advances).

 

agree or disagree? not intending to solicit political commentary, just investment analysis of situation

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This is not pointed at anyone in particular,

instead it's a thought I had this morning

regarding this & all the other events

deemed earth shattering.

 

---

 

News is toxic 2 your body,

it increases cognitive errors,

inhibits thinking,

and wastes time.

 

Consumption of news is irrelevant.

Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

 

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

 

---

 

I just added another New Years resolution,

 

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

 

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.

It's not about burying your head in the sand.

It's more about minimizing signal to noise.

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Guest cherzeca

I am trying to maximize signal to noise ratio actually.  I think the hit is something you have to pay at least some attention to as an investor, and after doing some noodling I think the hit is a net investment plus

 

fwiw, here is the best commentary (thread) that I have found today:

 

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I am trying to maximize signal to noise ratio actually.  I think the hit is something you have to pay at least some attention to as an investor, and after doing some noodling I think the hit is a net investment plus

 

fwiw, here is the best commentary (thread) that I have found today:

 

 

excellent

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Guest oakwood42

This is not pointed at anyone in particular,

instead it's a thought I had this morning

regarding this & all the other events

deemed earth shattering.

 

---

 

News is toxic 2 your body,

it increases cognitive errors,

inhibits thinking,

and wastes time.

 

Consumption of news is irrelevant.

Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

 

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

 

---

 

I just added another New Years resolution,

 

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

 

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.

It's not about burying your head in the sand.

It's more about minimizing signal to noise.

 

+1

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I am trying to maximize signal to noise ratio actually.  I think the hit is something you have to pay at least some attention to as an investor, and after doing some noodling I think the hit is a net investment plus

 

fwiw, here is the best commentary (thread) that I have found today:

 

 

Does killing one person, even if he is a “general” really make a difference? I guess it’s just one Martyr more for the Iranian hardliners. Not that have any sympathy for this guy, but I think he is easily replaceable.  Now we have 3500 more soldiers stationed in this area, after pulling out of Syria. Perhaps this had to be done since the Iran was testing the US, shooting down the drone and attacking Saudi oil facilities.

 

I think overall, the whole thing isn’t that big of an event, but it does mean that the area will continue to be a pressure cooker with US personal involved for the time being.

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Guest cherzeca

so we can monitor events over the weekend, but it has been reported that the Iraq parliament will vote Saturday to expel US forces from Iraq.  I suppose this is exactly what trump wants. Iraq no longer wants us, we go.  Iraq is riven and dysfunctional politically, and it can deal with Iran as it wants to, either as friend today or foe tomorrow, but big picture, trump seems to both want to end "endless wars" and lay down a marker for Iran as we exit that we will resist mightily their efforts to attack US interests...so hopefully our interests in the region will draw down closer to protecting Israel and other allies in the region (forgetting what you may think about emirs and sultans), and Iran's ambitions during a period of economic sanction become more restrained and less obnoxious. I suppose that is the strategy for those wondering what is going on...

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BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

 

I do like that one.

 

For about the last year I have been trying to think of a short concise term to describe the idea of perceiving things from an extra-dimension from the rest of the participants. I.e. in a 2D world, being able to see things from the 3rd dimension.

 

The closest appropriate description I've come across is Plato's allegory of "The Cave" in Republic VII. But I'd love to come up with a succinct, one word or short term that captured it.

 

 

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Guest cherzeca

 

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

 

I do like that one.

 

For about the last year I have been trying to think of a short concise term to describe the idea of perceiving things from an extra-dimension from the rest of the participants. I.e. in a 2D world, being able to see things from the 3rd dimension.

 

The closest appropriate description I've come across is Plato's allegory of "The Cave" in Republic VII. But I'd love to come up with a succinct, one word or short term that captured it.

 

overconfidence

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This is not pointed at anyone in particular,

instead it's a thought I had this morning

regarding this & all the other events

deemed earth shattering.

 

---

 

News is toxic 2 your body,

it increases cognitive errors,

inhibits thinking,

and wastes time.

 

Consumption of news is irrelevant.

Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

 

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

 

---

 

I just added another New Years resolution,

 

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

 

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.

It's not about burying your head in the sand.

It's more about minimizing signal to noise.

That was pretty powerful. Thank you.

As usual and concerning the most recent Middle East noise, you are probably right.

 

In terms of noise (or simple perception versus real meaning if you follow the Cave allegory) and relevant risk management, your post reminded me of a recent conversation (mostly a dialogue with me in the listen-only mode {sponge learning}) I had with an anesthesia specialist and an airplane pilot. The topic was how to deal with noise and to efficiently integrate it in a risk management strategy. Interestingly, both used a similar strategy, explaining that their inputs are critical only in specific circumstances or stages. They both mentioned that specific irrelevant inputs had be systematically removed but that they still needed to maintain a wide attention span to noise while almost simultaneously being able to filter out the noise, except for the occasional red flags or black swans. Their framework appeared to be very robust.

 

Mostly, the war drums noise (and related) is likely almost always irrelevant but Mark Jr.'s reference to Plato is interesting because of the messages (and underlying assumptions) from the allegory is that a good society must be one in which the truly wise (the Philosopher-King) are the rulers..

 

I was reviewing risk management for a specific industry (energy) recently and they came up with the concept of collective mindfulness which involved achieving a balance between the preoccupation with failure and maintaining the ability to smile. :)

 

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This is not pointed at anyone in particular,

instead it's a thought I had this morning

regarding this & all the other events

deemed earth shattering.

 

---

 

News is toxic 2 your body,

it increases cognitive errors,

inhibits thinking,

and wastes time.

 

Consumption of news is irrelevant.

Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

 

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

 

---

 

I just added another New Years resolution,

 

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

 

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.

It's not about burying your head in the sand.

It's more about minimizing signal to noise.

That was pretty powerful. Thank you.

As usual and concerning the most recent Middle East noise, you are probably right.

 

In terms of noise (or simple perception versus real meaning if you follow the Cave allegory) and relevant risk management, your post reminded me of a recent conversation (mostly a dialogue with me in the listen-only mode {sponge learning}) I had with an anesthesia specialist and an airplane pilot. The topic was how to deal with noise and to efficiently integrate it in a risk management strategy. Interestingly, both used a similar strategy, explaining that their inputs are critical only in specific circumstances or stages. They both mentioned that specific irrelevant inputs had be systematically removed but that they still needed to maintain a wide attention span to noise while almost simultaneously being able to filter out the noise, except for the occasional red flags or black swans. Their framework appeared to be very robust.

 

Mostly, the war drums noise (and related) is likely almost always irrelevant but Mark Jr.'s reference to Plato is interesting because of the messages (and underlying assumptions) from the allegory is that a good society must be one in which the truly wise (the Philosopher-King) are the rulers..

 

I was reviewing risk management for a specific industry (energy) recently and they came up with the concept of collective mindfulness which involved achieving a balance between the preoccupation with failure and maintaining the ability to smile. :)

 

I googled "an anesthesiologist & a pilot" hoping to find a funny story & instead found a lot of professionals musing about the similarities between the 2 disciplines. I can relate from a mariners standpoint & from having gotten a Private SEL a loooooong time ago (which hasn't been current for a few decades).

 

I've been fatigued for quite a while by the relentless, modern, news cycle & made the post after seeing a steady stream of users making doomsday predictions on Twitter re: the recent killing of Soleimani.

 

A day or so before, I was watching the weather report on our local television station, an ABC / Fox affiliate, & noticed that the screen was framed in an alarming red, with the words "Weather Alert" on prominent display. It was a beautiful sunny day with mild temperatures & a light breeze. There was no forecast of inclement weather.

 

The broadcast then segued into an even more ominous red screen with the heading "TERRORISM ALERT DESK". This was before the Soleimani news hit & there was nothing but bubbles in the segment. Another lovely gift from Sinclair Media.

 

Cave builders & sheep trainers, one & all.

 

Back to Mark Jr., and your point.

 

How does a person construct a net which is wide enough & has a mesh which is just the right size to gather the target species? Whatever the width & mesh, I believe that all such trawls should include some kind of turdle excluder device.

 

I believe that such a net is constructed by minimizing the consumption of content from mainstream news outlets & limiting the time spent on social media. Events of import will find their way into the net without the assistance of speleological architects.

 

Leave the cave & do stuff.

 

---

 

I just added another New Years resolution (the cutoff for additions is 7 Jan.).

 

"Be more gracious & let shit slip."

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BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

 

 

I do like that one.

 

For about the last year I have been trying to think of a short concise term to describe the idea of perceiving things from an extra-dimension from the rest of the participants. I.e. in a 2D world, being able to see things from the 3rd dimension.

 

The closest appropriate description I've come across is Plato's allegory of "The Cave" in Republic VII. But I'd love to come up with a succinct, one word or short term that captured it.

 

Yes, I like this too. The extra dimension is time or history. Current events don’t occur in a vacuum but are the results of long threads of narratives that date back decades and centuries. With the Iran one of the threads is that Iran is dominated by schism which  often feel corned by the majority of sunni within the Islamic religion. Hence the hatred against the saudis.

 

The Shia has a long history of martyrdom, which makes it difficult to fight them. We have seen that in the Iraqi Iranian war in the 1980’s where the Iranians literally threw bodies against tanks and managed to prevail. That’s why I believe that killing just one person is not going to change much, as the replacement is unlikely to be less radical than the predecessor.

 

I don’t think I could predict what is going to happen in this area in the short or long run, so perhaps these ramblings are all mute. One consequence is that as cherzeca notes that it may hasten the US departure from Iraq, as the Iraqi May not like that the drone strike was performed in their territory (Baghdad airport actually). But then again, recent deployment of US troops suggest otherwise in the short run.

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Wag the Dog

 

The timing is too early to make an impact on the election. I believe the better explanation is a tit for tat for recent provocations from Iran (US drone shot down over international waters, attack on Saudi oil, processing facilities, Iran meddling in Syria).

 

I agree.  Iranian militias have been firing rockers at us bases for months. They succeeded in killing an American which resulted in an escalatory spiral. There was an American general who has said that the point of killing the Iranian general was to show that they own retaliation and to try to break the spiral.  Aka you kill one of ours, we will kill 10 of yours.

 

Ejecting the US from Iraq could be another win both from the US side and the Iranian side. Iran will claim that as their revenge and hopefully break the violence cycle. 

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Guest cherzeca

the most interesting thing to me about the hit was that it showed the Iranians that we Americans can do asymmetric warfare too.  you need stealth and good intelligence to do asymetric, and we are too often obvious and blunt.  people who have been calling the hit an "act of war" are missing the point. it was quite frankly an act of terrorism (assassination), directed against a terrorist state.  in a country like Iran where life is cheap, it is best to take out the lives that they value most...this is usually not the way we do things but against Iran, I'm fine with it.

 

I believe investment markets are highly influenced by squishy things like culture, politics and zeitgeist.  the FC was caused by leverage, yes, but what led otherwise smart people to load up so much leverage?  so one man's signal is another man's noise

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...

I googled "an anesthesiologist & a pilot" hoping to find a funny story & instead found a lot of professionals musing about the similarities between the 2 disciplines. I can relate from a mariners standpoint & from having gotten a Private SEL a loooooong time ago (which hasn't been current for a few decades).

 

I've been fatigued for quite a while by the relentless, modern, news cycle & made the post after seeing a steady stream of users making doomsday predictions on Twitter re: the recent killing of Soleimani.

 

A day or so before, I was watching the weather report on our local television station, an ABC / Fox affiliate, & noticed that the screen was framed in an alarming red, with the words "Weather Alert" on prominent display. It was a beautiful sunny day with mild temperatures & a light breeze. There was no forecast of inclement weather.

 

The broadcast then segued into an even more ominous red screen with the heading "TERRORISM ALERT DESK". This was before the Soleimani news hit & there was nothing but bubbles in the segment. Another lovely gift from Sinclair Media.

 

Cave builders & sheep trainers, one & all.

 

Back to Mark Jr., and your point.

 

How does a person construct a net which is wide enough & has a mesh which is just the right size to gather the target species? Whatever the width & mesh, I believe that all such trawls should include some kind of turdle excluder device.

 

I believe that such a net is constructed by minimizing the consumption of content from mainstream news outlets & limiting the time spent on social media. Events of import will find their way into the net without the assistance of speleological architects.

 

Leave the cave & do stuff.

 

---

 

I just added another New Years resolution (the cutoff for additions is 7 Jan.).

 

"Be more gracious & let shit slip."

I agree with the above but don't be too gracious. Later today, we're going to walk through an outside light "show". Summarizing question from members of the household: "Why are we doing that?". Summarizing answer: "To see the light". :)

 

More noise...

A few weeks ago, I read about criteria useful in marine insurance underwriting. The authors described a "method" to see through the noise. They used a framework of permitting risks and triggering risks (with both having an internal and external subdivision). A permitting risk described had to do with the fact that most 'accidents' occurred during concentrated periods of time in overcrowded port areas and systems allowing the buildup of port congestion had to be addressed. An example of a triggering risk was the RMS Titanic. In that case, we know that this was not a typical perfect storm and the fault cannot be solely attributed to natural causes as nature is not known to be vain.

Going back to the war drums theme, in other pages in another thread, a book is mentioned that deals with (potential) explanations of chaos and a main topic of the book is how the assassination of an Austrian archduke "triggered" WWI. As Spekulatius elegantly mentions above, one has to look at the permitting risk factors that allowed for a trigger, however small (or significant) it may have been. This is always easy in retrospect. An interesting feature (according to many credible sources) is that this nationalist guy, Gavrilo Princip, had missed the parade (was late) and was going back home, despised, when, by chance, he happened to be in the 'right' place at the 'right' time to shoot the prince as the parade had been diverted from its original course. And the rest is history.

 

Enough noise as I'm starting to get online publicity about games with titles like WWIII simulation etc...

 

PS You continue to contribute to improving my limited vocabulary in your language. Today, I learned what a turdle means (at least I think I do). :)

 

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Guest cherzeca

as to the wag the dog theme, there is a certain disadvantage for Biden and the other Ds if hostilities continue in Iran/iraq throughout the election cycle.  Biden is on record for having counseled Obama not to hit bin laden, and now on record saying he never said that, which is an unambiguous lie.  the bin laden hit is obviously viewed by the electorate as a major success, and trump can make hay out of his success with taking out the king of the Quds vs Biden's record re bin laden.

 

as for the other D candidates, no one looks to have any foreign policy/military expertise.  Buttigieg will talk a good game about his previous service but how will that square with opposition to this hit?  all of his veteran brethren will call him out, making him look weak. 

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PS You continue to contribute to improving my limited vocabulary in your language. Today, I learned what a turdle means (at least I think I do). :)

 

I smashed the words "turtle" & "turd" together & voila, turdle.

 

I'd hoped that I might be eligible for an Ig Nobel prize, but I just googled it & the word already exists.

 

---

 

Turdle - An ignorant, trifling person of typically low educational, social, or economic standing that holds up lines in public places doing things like:

 

 

- Methodically instructing workers at Subway how to create their perfect sandwich (e.g. “just a little more mayo, I said more mayo!”, “spread those tomatoes out!”), while other people wait.

 

- Removing the contents of a McDonalds order bag in front of the cashier to double check that everything was included, while other people wait.

 

- Asking restaurant waiters about the exact ingredients of menu items and then requesting numerous substitutions to the ingredients.

 

- Rearranging the contents of their purse or wallet at a checkout counter, while other people wait

 

---

 

The Ig Nobel Prize,

 

www.improbable.com/ig-about/

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The Iranians made a serious miscalculation. The US holds all the cards here. The US won't invade Iran or push for regime change - they'll just

exercise tit for tat.  US AirPower can inflict enormous damage on a regime reeling economically.  What happens if the US decides to take out

Iran's navy? What then?

 

Under Trump, the US has no interest in invasion, occupation or nation building - just deterrence.

And US sanctions continue to inflict enormous damage to the Iranian economy.

 

The Iranians really fucked up - and figured a President marred by impeachment during an election year, would not respond with the hammer.

 

That's all the Iranians understand - is the hammer. What a miscalculation.

 

Iran will have no support or sympathy from their mid-east neighbors, who hate their efforts to destabilize the region (Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, etc)

 

Any Iranian escalation now will be met with serious damage to the Iranian infrastructure and economy through increased sanctions or

bombing.  Then who loses political support? - The regime.

 

You can be sure that Iran is praying for the return of US foreign policy under President Obama now. They'd love to have that deal back.

 

The current situation is very dangerous, but the Iranians are in a hell of their own making.

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