Art of the Deal

[LC]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

[Parsad]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

 

He is not a good deal maker.  He uses threats and litigation in his business, and he does the same as President...if I don't get what I want, I will shut the government down.  Cheers!

[Orchard]

I'm not a Trump fan. I quite dislike him.

 

Nonetheless I took some time to study the guy since he's now everywhere and in the late 80s he had quite a presence in the stock market as well.

 

His first deal seems to have been the Commodore Hotel. He got a large tax abatement from the city and partnered with Pritzker to put the Grand Hyatt banner on it. At the time he was in his twenties and I'm sure a lot of people would have loved to re-develop that hotel. On the other hand it's not clear to me that his return was that remarkable on it. I think Pritzker made a lot more on it than he did.

 

The next deal was the Trump Tower. He still got a large tax abatement from the city by suing them (Roy Cohn was the lawyer). However, the real deal here was purchasing the site. You would think that a lot of people were interested in it but he was ultimately the one that got it.

 

Personally, I think these were quite remarkable deals. Other than that the Mar A Lago purchase was shrewd in a more sinister way.

 

After this I didn't find any deals that impressed me.

 

I can see how these deals would build up quite a reputation in the real estate industry. It's obviously a stretch to believe that this would translate to other fields.

 

I have some friends who played high level sports when they were young and still talk about it today, 20 years later. If you listen to them it sounds like it all happened just this morning but you know they haven't done anything in years (think LaVar Ball). He reminds me of those people.

[ERICOPOLY]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

 

He is not a good deal maker.  He uses threats and litigation in his business, and he does the same as President...if I don't get what I want, I will shut the government down.  Cheers!

 

He is financially harming the Federal workers (shooting the hostages) until he gets his way.

 

 

[Parsad]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

 

He is not a good deal maker.  He uses threats and litigation in his business, and he does the same as President...if I don't get what I want, I will shut the government down.  Cheers!

 

He is financially harming the Federal workers (shooting the hostages) until he gets his way.

 

Although he would describe it as "flesh wounds"!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

 

He is not a good deal maker.  He uses threats and litigation in his business, and he does the same as President...if I don't get what I want, I will shut the government down.  Cheers!

 

He is financially harming the Federal workers (shooting the hostages) until he gets his way.

 

Although he would describe it as "flesh wounds"!  Cheers!

 

While I'm sure there are some great folks(I know plenty who are), these are also in many cases folks who get paid well with great pensions and benefits, for doing easy stuff from 9-4 with a 2 hour lunch break....

 

If our real blood and sweat workers like farmers(who by the way don't make great money, don't have pensions, and usually pay their own health insurance) can take one on the chin to fix some problems and improve the country, so can they....

[wescobrk]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

 

He is not a good deal maker.  He uses threats and litigation in his business, and he does the same as President...if I don't get what I want, I will shut the government down.  Cheers!

 

I'm not a Trump supporter, but Obama did the same thing as a senator. He voted to shut down the government and not fund it when W was in office.

[Parsad]

I saw a comment recently that made me think - one of the traits people claimed Trump had was the ability to make a deal.

 

I am curious how those who voted for/support him view this in light of the government shut down, and Trump's inability to convince (1) Mexico (2) A Republican Congress, to pay for one of his most memorable promises - the "wall".

 

He is not a good deal maker.  He uses threats and litigation in his business, and he does the same as President...if I don't get what I want, I will shut the government down.  Cheers!

 

I'm not a Trump supporter, but Obama did the same thing as a senator. He voted to shut down the government and not fund it when W was in office.

 

And two wrongs don't make a right.  If Trump is trying to distinguish himself from Obama, he should learn from Obama's mistakes...not repeat them.  Cheers!

[LC]

And let’s not forget the last shutdown was over 3.4 billion for healthcare - something which actually benefits people’s lives. Apparently at the time Republicans thought we couldn’t afford that- but 5B for a wall that won’t work, apparently that is totally affordable.

[LC]

Here’s the problem with this wall, these are two comments I saw but IMHO explain (1) the situation and (2) the reason why.

 

“

Planet Money did a podcast on the feasibility of building the wall and from most accounts its doable but it would be extremely expensive.

 

First you need to acquire all the land needed to build the wall and some areas sit on private property.

Second you need to build an infrastructure of roads and other infrastructure structures just to be able to reach some of the remote areas to build the wall.

Third you need to actually build the wall.

And finally you need to maintain the wall which is estimated to cost up to three times the cost of the actual wall.

This doesnt take into account the inevitable lawsuits, funding issues, government waste, etc.

 

If you really want to secure the entire border. The better idea is a series of drones and ground sensors. While improving the walls of the areas that are most commonly crossed.

“

 

“

The problem for Trump is that "The Wall" was never about how effective (or cost-effective) it would be. It was about what he has been about his entire life: building large gaudy shit and putting his name on it. That's why it was his go-so solution and the centerpiece of his campaign. You can't put "TRUMP" on a ground sensor and stand in front of it so everyone can see how big and not-Toad-shaped your dick is. He wants something big and physical that everyone has to say is the Trump Thing of Trump Made By Trump.

 

Nothing about how important this is to him has to do with efficacy. It's 100% about ego and symbolism.

“

[rkbabang]

In my opinion anyone who can be described as a non-essential government worker in any context, should be laid off permanently.  There are far too many federal government employees doing far too many things and being paid far too much money.  I hope the shutdown lasts a long long time.  Long enough for a good percentage of these people to go find productive work in the private sector.  Trump, Obama, whoever. I don't care who shuts down the government or why, it is always a good thing.

 

 

[watsa_is_a_randian_hero]

What is the present value of the change in trade deficit with Mexico under USMCA vs NAFTA?  This was a $63 billion deficit in 2017...if this was reduced by 1%, a 20x multiple on this would be $12.6 billion. 

 

What is the savings of not providing benefits to non-us citizen Mexican nationals who cross our border illegally?

 

[Guest MarkS]

What is the present value of the change in trade deficit with Mexico under USMCA vs NAFTA?  This was a $63 billion deficit in 2017...if this was reduced by 1%, a 20x multiple on this would be $12.6 billion. 

 

What is the savings of not providing benefits to non-us citizen Mexican nationals who cross our border illegally?

 

 

I've seen reports that illegal immigrants cost the taxpayer somewhere between 50 to 130 billion per year depending on numerous assumption, one of which is simply the number of illegal immigrants in the country.

[Parsad]

What is the present value of the change in trade deficit with Mexico under USMCA vs NAFTA?  This was a $63 billion deficit in 2017...if this was reduced by 1%, a 20x multiple on this would be $12.6 billion. 

 

What is the savings of not providing benefits to non-us citizen Mexican nationals who cross our border illegally?

 

 

I've seen reports that illegal immigrants cost the taxpayer somewhere between 50 to 130 billion per year depending on numerous assumption, one of which is simply the number of illegal immigrants in the country.

 

I would think that number is probably accurate...say 10M illegals...no taxes, fraud, etc...say $10K a head and you are looking at $100B.  I agree that illegal immigrants is a problem and has to be fixed. 

 

I'm just against tearing families apart and saying that a $5B wall is going to fix the problem.  It took a couple of decades to create the problem, you should expect it to take nearly a decade to fix it properly...and that means more than $5B, and a wall isn't going to cure it or reduce it substantially, since you've already got more than half of the border walled or cut-off with natural terrain.  You need more people, more cameras, more security from the Mexico side...Cheers! 

[Guest MarkS]

Parsad,

 

I think that a wall will help.  We have a huge backlog of asylum case that we can't manage effectively.  But only about 7 to 10% of those claiming asylum will actually.  I understand why you don't want to separate families.  But how do you deal with the 90% who ultimately won't qualify for asylum.  Because of the backlog and legal protections afforded asylum claiments,  it might take years to process them at this point.  Drones and more agents do not solve this problem because once they cross the border and utter the magic word "asylum" legal ramifications stemming from the claim must be dealt with.   

 

For color on the backlog -  https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/uscis-take-action-address-asylum-backlog

[Parsad]

Parsad,

 

I think that a wall will help.  We have a huge backlog of asylum case that we can't manage effectively.  But only about 7 to 10% of those claiming asylum will actually.  I understand why you don't want to separate families.  But how do you deal with the 90% who ultimately won't qualify for asylum.  Because of the backlog and legal protections afforded asylum claiments,  it might take years to process them at this point.  Drones and more agents do not solve this problem because once they cross the border and utter the magic word "asylum" legal ramifications stemming from the claim must be dealt with.   

 

For color on the backlog -  https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/uscis-take-action-address-asylum-backlog

 

I understand the complication and ramifications, but if it took something years and years to fester, it isn't going to heal in a year or two.  Trump is right on illegals, but he's handling it all the wrong way...and he's not making any progress with the stance and attitude he's taking.  This wasn't a liberal/democrat problem...it's an American problem that occurred over various administrations and parties.  The problem is that the man only knows how to wield a hammer and everything is a God-damn nail to him.  Cheers!

[Guest MarkS]

All fair points, Parsad.

 

However, I will say one thing in Trumps favor.  As you correctly point out this is a problem built on the failures of democrats and republicans over the decades.  At least Trump is raising hell trying to do something.  Left to the establishment (both sides) i can assure you that this problem would be kicked down the road just like every over difficult issue the country faces.

[Parsad]

All fair points, Parsad.

 

However, I will say one thing in Trumps favor.  As you correctly point out this is a problem built on the failures of democrats and republicans over the decades.  At least Trump is raising hell trying to do something.  Left to the establishment (both sides) i can assure you that this problem would be kicked down the road just like every over difficult issue the country faces.

 

That's probably correct.  Again, I'm not disagreeing with Trump...only the way he's going about it and the amount of time and money this is going to take to fix properly...and not with a hammer. 

 

These are people we are dealing with...we lose our humanity, and we lose everything that makes America great!  Yeah take a hard line with Mexico and South American countries, as well as the criminals and murderers...but there are also many families and innocent people in that 10M population of illegal immigrants...all they want is a better life, and maybe they just took the wrong advice and did it the wrong way.  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

But when Obama and other Dems including Schumer wanted a wall, no one whined....

 

 

Let me guess, two wrongs don't make a right? Obama isn't president right now? Or did I miss one...

[orthopa]

I haven't even noticed that the fed govt was shut down? Stop reading the news on this and you will realize quickly it means nothing. Govt shuts down every couple of years. Who cares. Every time the reason is stupid depending on which party you support.

 

I think the one thing with Trump that is true he was exactly what he ran for or as. This should'nt be a surprise I guess knowing this was what he promised. I think it true political fashion many are surprised as he is actually pushing the issue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LC]

But when Obama and other Dems including Schumer wanted a wall, no one whined....

 

 

Let me guess, two wrongs don't make a right? Obama isn't president right now? Or did I miss one...

Are you talking about the Fence Act?

 

That was a somewhat intelligent take on the Mexico border, but even that was seen to have failed.

 

A report in May 2008 by the Congressional Research Service found "strong indication" that illegal border-crossers had simply found new routes.[13] A 2017 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, citing U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, found that from fiscal year 2010 through fiscal year 2015, the U.S.-Mexico border fence had been breached 9,287 times, at an average cost of $784 per breach to repair.[14] The same GAO report concluded that "CBP cannot measure the contribution of fencing to border security operations along the southwest border because it has not developed metrics for this assessment."[12] GAO noted that because the government lacked such data, it was unable to assess the effectiveness of border fencing, and therefore could not "identify the cost effectiveness of border fencing compared to other assets the agency deploys, including Border Patrol agents and various surveillance technologies."[15]

 

The fence is routinely climbed or otherwise circumvented.[9] The GAO reported in 2017 that both pedestrian and vehicle barriers have been defeated by various methods, including using ramps to drive vehicles "up and over" vehicle fencing in the sector; scaling, jumping over, or breaching pedestrian fencing; burrowing or tunneling underground; and even using small aircraft.[16] New York Times op-ed writer Lawrence Downes wrote in 2013: "A climber with a rope can hop it in less than half a minute. ... Smugglers with jackhammers tunnel under it. They throw drugs and rocks over it. The fence is breached not just by sunlight and shadows, but also the hooded gaze of drug-cartel lookouts, and by bullets. Border agents describe their job as an unending battle of wits, a cat-mouse game with the constant threat of violence."[9][17]

 

Fighting and against a rising tide is unwise. Turn the ship around and make the current work for you.

 

In other words: allow full economic "citizenship" - i.e. you apply for some work permit. You pay taxes, you pay into social security and medicare. But you don't receive those benefits, you cannot vote, yo do not get a US passport. But you have a legal status. The increased taxes are the cost of doing business for the marginal immigrant. Those fleeing drug-torn Central America would not turn it down. It brings down the tax burden of US citizens, it separates the illicit immigration (drugs, weapons, human trafficking) from work migrants (which allows even higher penalties on illegal border crossing and therefore a stronger deterrent to the "bad hombres"), it solves the shadowy living situation of millions of US illegal immigrants, and it doesn't really change much of anything in terms of overall population flow (considering our current heavy-handed efforts do not seem to be working). It saves billions on futile immigration courts and border security, it allows border patrol to focus on criminal activity.

 

But nah we're gonna build a wall. That'll fix it.  :o :o

 

 

[Parsad]

But when Obama and other Dems including Schumer wanted a wall, no one whined....

 

 

Let me guess, two wrongs don't make a right? Obama isn't president right now? Or did I miss one...

Are you talking about the Fence Act?

 

That was a somewhat intelligent take on the Mexico border, but even that was seen to have failed.

 

A report in May 2008 by the Congressional Research Service found "strong indication" that illegal border-crossers had simply found new routes.[13] A 2017 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, citing U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, found that from fiscal year 2010 through fiscal year 2015, the U.S.-Mexico border fence had been breached 9,287 times, at an average cost of $784 per breach to repair.[14] The same GAO report concluded that "CBP cannot measure the contribution of fencing to border security operations along the southwest border because it has not developed metrics for this assessment."[12] GAO noted that because the government lacked such data, it was unable to assess the effectiveness of border fencing, and therefore could not "identify the cost effectiveness of border fencing compared to other assets the agency deploys, including Border Patrol agents and various surveillance technologies."[15]

 

The fence is routinely climbed or otherwise circumvented.[9] The GAO reported in 2017 that both pedestrian and vehicle barriers have been defeated by various methods, including using ramps to drive vehicles "up and over" vehicle fencing in the sector; scaling, jumping over, or breaching pedestrian fencing; burrowing or tunneling underground; and even using small aircraft.[16] New York Times op-ed writer Lawrence Downes wrote in 2013: "A climber with a rope can hop it in less than half a minute. ... Smugglers with jackhammers tunnel under it. They throw drugs and rocks over it. The fence is breached not just by sunlight and shadows, but also the hooded gaze of drug-cartel lookouts, and by bullets. Border agents describe their job as an unending battle of wits, a cat-mouse game with the constant threat of violence."[9][17]

 

Fighting and against a rising tide is unwise. Turn the ship around and make the current work for you.

 

In other words: allow full economic "citizenship" - i.e. you apply for some work permit. You pay taxes, you pay into social security and medicare. But you don't receive those benefits, you cannot vote, yo do not get a US passport. But you have a legal status. The increased taxes are the cost of doing business for the marginal immigrant. Those fleeing drug-torn Central America would not turn it down. It brings down the tax burden of US citizens, it separates the illicit immigration (drugs, weapons, human trafficking) from work migrants (which allows even higher penalties on illegal border crossing and therefore a stronger deterrent to the "bad hombres"), it solves the shadowy living situation of millions of US illegal immigrants, and it doesn't really change much of anything in terms of overall population flow (considering our current heavy-handed efforts do not seem to be working). It saves billions on futile immigration courts and border security, it allows border patrol to focus on criminal activity.

 

But nah we're gonna build a wall. That'll fix it.  :o :o

 

+1!  That's a workable alternative to what is being attempted.  Would cost less, do more, and you negate the economic harm.  Republicans would still keep screaming about the criminals being let into the country.  So I think you have to do both...secure the border, remove the criminals and nationalize the illegals that should stay and pay their fair share...and maybe the price should be no passport, benefits, etc...just residency.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

But when Obama and other Dems including Schumer wanted a wall, no one whined....

 

 

I'm sure you did!  Cheers!

 

 

[watsa_is_a_randian_hero]

See attached

[rb]

So what? So does Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan, Laos, Myanmar, Japan and Russia.