WTF is going on in Sweden

[rukawa]

Hand grenade attacks? Really:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/violent-crime-in-sweden-is-soaring-when-will-politicians-act/

 

Rapes advertised on snapshat:

https://quillette.com/2017/10/10/swedens-sexual-assault-crisis-presents-feminist-paradox/

 

And an education system that makes Americans look good:

https://quillette.com/2018/09/18/post-truth-and-the-decline-of-swedish-education/

 

And finally all the political parties refuse to co-operate:

https://quillette.com/2018/09/07/swedens-general-election-turmoil/

[wachtwoord]

This is all not new, has been going on for more than a decade at least. Socialism and feminism gone wild. It will get worse before it gets better.

[meiroy]

 

Protip: don't read Zerohedge.

 

[wachtwoord]

 

Protip: don't read Zerohedge.

 

Pro tip from me is do read it. Better sourcing than any mainstream media outlet.

[Cardboard]

Yes, read information from all sources and make up you own mind.

 

It is amazing that we have to tell that to a group of investors who should constantly investigate.

 

Actually, it does remind me about the founding of this website. It was founded so that Brolgaboy (supposedly John Hempton) could no longer talk/argue that Fairfax was terminally ill in 2002/2003. The discussion was taking place on Stockhouse and then CoBF was born (Fairfax bulls echo chamber).

 

You know what? Despite many false conclusions, Brolgaboy brought up a lot of facts surrounding Fairfax that none of us were aware of such as entities in far flung places such as in Mauritius, to watch-out for cross-collateralization, etc. This so-called misinformation campaign and bear attack led to the company initiating its first conference call and all these points were then explained in reports.

 

While many did not like to hear about massive under-reserving that could lead to a bankruptcy and preferred to be comforted by Prem's statements that the company could be sold for at least $300 CAD, investors in Fairfax discovered in the next 3-4 years that the company had indeed very large reserving problems and had to issue equities multiple times well below book value.

 

In effect, the company was saved by two things:

 

1- It made a very large long term treasury gains in late 2002/early 2003. Some good luck there.

2- Under-reserving from prior years, TIG, Crum & Forster could be spread over many future years allowing the company to issue equity and refinance multiple times or softening up the blow.

 

While I didn't like Brolgaboy at the time and argued constantly with him on Stockhouse, I came to appreciate his analysis, depth of research, and realized that while he was wrong on Fairfax going to zero, he was certainly right about Fairfax being a bad investment. After the large drop in 2002 followed by strong rebound in early 2003, the years after were anything but, pleasant for investors.

 

There are too many elements being accepted at face value by too many on this website. You should keep a critical mind. Doesn't mean to be a contrarian on everything but, please don't believe everything you are being told by so-called "authorities".

 

Cardboard

[cubsfan]

Cardboard

 

Such an obvious but important insight.

[Guest Schwab711]

Protip: don't read Zerohedge.

Pro tip from me is do read it. Better sourcing than any mainstream media outlet.

 

They always source directly from those exact outlets. They use mainstream media outlet sourcing by proxy (and they don't even attempt to verify what they pass on)!

 

They do great work considering how many people are involved but they hardly do any unique work. They are a 'mainstream media' aggregator that shows that reporting from an angle some folks want to hear. They just pick and choose what articles to show. That's fine but it's funny how many of the comments on the site talk about fake news considering ZH's business model.

 

 

 

There are too many elements being accepted at face value by too many on this website. You should keep a critical mind. Doesn't mean to be a contrarian on everything but, please don't believe everything you are being told by so-called "authorities".

 

I'd probably agree in direct but would alter this to say: you can almost always believe 'authorities', but the world is more complicated (not necessarily complex, just complicated) then any one person can describe. Read broadly. Read often. Be willing to be wrong.

 

If you pick and choose when to believe 'authorities' and which to believe because it matches your POV then you are going to have bad results.

 

Finally, I'd also argue that when in doubt, assume that people are people. That is, most groups of people broadly act like you and me. They have the same fears, same relationships, same concerns, similar things make them happy (being with family/friends), and they generally want the same things out of life. They may intend to go about it in much different ways, but people tend to be people throughout the world and throughout history. As an example, it's probably reasonable to assume that teenagers in Rome were annoying and moody. Same as it ever was.

[Parsad]

Yes, read information from all sources and make up you own mind.

 

It is amazing that we have to tell that to a group of investors who should constantly investigate.

 

Actually, it does remind me about the founding of this website. It was founded so that Brolgaboy (supposedly John Hempton) could no longer talk/argue that Fairfax was terminally ill in 2002/2003. The discussion was taking place on Stockhouse and then CoBF was born (Fairfax bulls echo chamber).

 

You know what? Despite many false conclusions, Brolgaboy brought up a lot of facts surrounding Fairfax that none of us were aware of such as entities in far flung places such as in Mauritius, to watch-out for cross-collateralization, etc. This so-called misinformation campaign and bear attack led to the company initiating its first conference call and all these points were then explained in reports.

 

While many did not like to hear about massive under-reserving that could lead to a bankruptcy and preferred to be comforted by Prem's statements that the company could be sold for at least $300 CAD, investors in Fairfax discovered in the next 3-4 years that the company had indeed very large reserving problems and had to issue equities multiple times well below book value.

 

In effect, the company was saved by two things:

 

1- It made a very large long term treasury gains in late 2002/early 2003. Some good luck there.

2- Under-reserving from prior years, TIG, Crum & Forster could be spread over many future years allowing the company to issue equity and refinance multiple times or softening up the blow.

 

While I didn't like Brolgaboy at the time and argued constantly with him on Stockhouse, I came to appreciate his analysis, depth of research, and realized that while he was wrong on Fairfax going to zero, he was certainly right about Fairfax being a bad investment. After the large drop in 2002 followed by strong rebound in early 2003, the years after were anything but, pleasant for investors.

 

There are too many elements being accepted at face value by too many on this website. You should keep a critical mind. Doesn't mean to be a contrarian on everything but, please don't believe everything you are being told by so-called "authorities".

 

Cardboard

 

Cardboard,

 

You leave out one important facet of what was happening at Fairfax...the fact that Brolgaboy and a slew of others including hedge funds, journalists and analysts were systematically driving the price down so that Fairfax could not even raise capital from an equity raise, especially as credit quality deteriorated due to 9/11, Hurricane Hugo and Andrew.  It's one thing to put out analysis, but completely another thing to release that analysis early to journalists, hedge funds, etc and then watch hedge funds naked short the hell out of a company driving the price down.  This forced Fairfax to raise the $300M from Cundill, Southeastern and Markel.  Brolgaboy is a smart analyst, but he's still a frickin' prick!  Even on my best day, I am not going to give him an ounce of credit for being anything other than a venomous, corrupt asshole who was trying to make a name for himself.  Cheers!

[meiroy]

 

Schwab711,

 

Thank you for your clear explanation.  I would add the following, as well:

 

ZH is an entertainment site, layering its articles with an extremely biased illusion of bearish certainty directed at the rich democracies, and it does it very, very well.  It does not add any real value that cannot be found anywhere else. Worse, its constant extreme bias might influence your judgment. 

 

As the past 10 years have clearly shown, following this site would have caused great financial losses.

 

It would not surprise me if the Trump administration would order ZH to register as Foreign Agents. In recent months they have started to earnestly enforce this requirement.

 

 

[wachtwoord]

 

ZH is an entertainment site, layering its articles with an extremely biased illusion of bearish certainty directed at the rich democracies, and it does it very, very well.  It does not add any real value that cannot be found anywhere else. Worse, its constant extreme bias might influence your judgment. 

 

 

Exactly as the mainstream media then except in the other direction (right rather than left) and better sourcing.

 

I'll keep using it to dilute the downpour of leftwing propaganda being shoved down our throats from all directions.

[meiroy]

 

ZH is an entertainment site, layering its articles with an extremely biased illusion of bearish certainty directed at the rich democracies, and it does it very, very well.  It does not add any real value that cannot be found anywhere else. Worse, its constant extreme bias might influence your judgment. 

 

 

Exactly as the mainstream media then except in the other direction (right rather than left) and better sourcing.

 

I'll keep using it to dilute the downpour of leftwing propaganda being shoved down our throats from all directions.

 

Wow, you're getting leftwing propaganda from watching Fox News all day ? ?

 

I do agree that there is a lot of crap out there, which is why I don't watch any news on TV or any online broadcasts. 

 

 

 

 

[rb]

Actually there's not a hell of a lot happening in Sweden.

 

https://www.bra.se/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics/swedish-crime-survey.html

 

Also when talking about sexual offenses in Sweden it is helpful to keep in mind that Sweden has a loose definition that continuously expands (for example among other things in 2018 sex without explicit consent became rape) and has a weird way of counting. That has historically put the country very high in sexual offenses category, but things aren't as bad as the raw numbers would suggest.

 

--o o 0 o o--

 

Separately, when it comes to information I agree that you need to keep an open mind as you look at data and information. But you must also be smart on how you go about it. If you want to learn about what's going on in Sweden you would logically start by looking at Swedish sources including Swedish statistics. Swedish statistics btw are incredibly good and expansive, go back a long way, and are also published in English.

 

The original post quotes an article in a right wing (though with standards) British publication and 3 articles from an obscure right wing/libertarian? website from Canada. Starting from there is the equivalent of one wanting to learn about what's going on in the United States but doing so by reading articles from left wing websites in New Zealand.

[BG2008]

Yes, read information from all sources and make up you own mind.

 

It is amazing that we have to tell that to a group of investors who should constantly investigate.

 

Actually, it does remind me about the founding of this website. It was founded so that Brolgaboy (supposedly John Hempton) could no longer talk/argue that Fairfax was terminally ill in 2002/2003. The discussion was taking place on Stockhouse and then CoBF was born (Fairfax bulls echo chamber).

 

You know what? Despite many false conclusions, Brolgaboy brought up a lot of facts surrounding Fairfax that none of us were aware of such as entities in far flung places such as in Mauritius, to watch-out for cross-collateralization, etc. This so-called misinformation campaign and bear attack led to the company initiating its first conference call and all these points were then explained in reports.

 

While many did not like to hear about massive under-reserving that could lead to a bankruptcy and preferred to be comforted by Prem's statements that the company could be sold for at least $300 CAD, investors in Fairfax discovered in the next 3-4 years that the company had indeed very large reserving problems and had to issue equities multiple times well below book value.

 

In effect, the company was saved by two things:

 

1- It made a very large long term treasury gains in late 2002/early 2003. Some good luck there.

2- Under-reserving from prior years, TIG, Crum & Forster could be spread over many future years allowing the company to issue equity and refinance multiple times or softening up the blow.

 

While I didn't like Brolgaboy at the time and argued constantly with him on Stockhouse, I came to appreciate his analysis, depth of research, and realized that while he was wrong on Fairfax going to zero, he was certainly right about Fairfax being a bad investment. After the large drop in 2002 followed by strong rebound in early 2003, the years after were anything but, pleasant for investors.

 

There are too many elements being accepted at face value by too many on this website. You should keep a critical mind. Doesn't mean to be a contrarian on everything but, please don't believe everything you are being told by so-called "authorities".

 

Cardboard

 

Cardboard,

 

You leave out one important facet of what was happening at Fairfax...the fact that Brolgaboy and a slew of others including hedge funds, journalists and analysts were systematically driving the price down so that Fairfax could not even raise capital from an equity raise, especially as credit quality deteriorated due to 9/11, Hurricane Hugo and Andrew.  It's one thing to put out analysis, but completely another thing to release that analysis early to journalists, hedge funds, etc and then watch hedge funds naked short the hell out of a company driving the price down.  This forced Fairfax to raise the $300M from Cundill, Southeastern and Markel.  Brolgaboy is a smart analyst, but he's still a frickin' prick!  Even on my best day, I am not going to give him an ounce of credit for being anything other than a venomous, corrupt asshole who was trying to make a name for himself.  Cheers!

 

Parsad,

 

I have not idea what happened during that time.  I was in college.  But is it Prem's fault if he "had to" issue equity at all?  I am of the opinion that you should never be caught with having to issue equity or ask for a hand out.  BRK was writing checks to bail out banks in 08 and 09. 

[Cigarbutt]

Parsad,

I have not idea what happened during that time.  I was in college.  But is it Prem's fault if he "had to" issue equity at all?  I am of the opinion that you should never be caught with having to issue equity or ask for a hand out.  BRK was writing checks to bail out banks in 08 and 09.

FWIW, I did not follow investment boards then but was invested in varying forms and degrees in Fairfax.

I would just say that on top of the two things that Cardboard mentions, there was an additional factor that was decisive, at least for me:

-I felt the nature of the financial agression to be unfair and felt that the managment team were an honest group doing their best under the circumstances.

[Cardboard]

"-I felt the nature of the financial agression to be unfair and felt that the managment team were an honest group doing their best under the circumstances."

 

I thought so as well until I saw multiple equity raises year after year and problems from the past never seeming to abate: under-reserving, runoff. They were mixed with current issues such as new hurricanes or regular disasters in P&C insurance making it really hard to dissociate. Plus we always received a "pro-forma" view of things or results excluding this and this making us believe that they truly were one off and that issues were now behind us.

 

The shorts wanted all issues out at once to enrich themselves while the way it happened felt like water torture.

 

Cardboard

[Spekulatius]

Actually there's not a hell of a lot happening in Sweden.

 

https://www.bra.se/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics/swedish-crime-survey.html

 

Also when talking about sexual offenses in Sweden it is helpful to keep in mind that Sweden has a loose definition that continuously expands (for example among other things in 2018 sex without explicit consent became rape) and has a weird way of counting. That has historically put the country very high in sexual offenses category, but things aren't as bad as the raw numbers would suggest.

 

--o o 0 o o--

 

Separately, when it comes to information I agree that you need to keep an open mind as you look at data and information. But you must also be smart on how you go about it. If you want to learn about what's going on in Sweden you would logically start by looking at Swedish sources including Swedish statistics. Swedish statistics btw are incredibly good and expansive, go back a long way, and are also published in English.

 

The original post quotes an article in a right wing (though with standards) British publication and 3 articles from an obscure right wing/libertarian? website from Canada. Starting from there is the equivalent of one wanting to learn about what's going on in the United States but doing so by reading articles from left wing websites in New Zealand.

 

What is true is that Sweden has right now a fairly strong right wing movement, just like Italy, Germany and France.

[Cigarbutt]

Concerning the education system in Sweden, there is a phenomenon that is happening in my jurisdiction that is similar in terms of "reforms" introduced and results obtained.

 

IMO, a good system requires a combination of excellence and equity, so a combination of free markets and public policy. Difficult balance.

To find solutions, we have to navigate among a range of "authorities" from dogmatic and tribal opinions to pretty much useless voluminous reports produced by large bureaucratic organizations.

 

It appears from data that Sweden continues to score high on equity but reforms introduced failed to improve student competence (at least the way this is measured now) and in fact had the opposite effect. It also seems that the system, among many factors, has moved away from a traditional, uni-directional and structured teaching to a more flexible approach focusing on the student's specific needs.

 

I have progressively "seen" the results of the reform on my kids and I think the pendulum has moved too far.

Learning is great but nobody said it is easy or always fun.

 

[Guest Schwab711]

 

ZH is an entertainment site, layering its articles with an extremely biased illusion of bearish certainty directed at the rich democracies, and it does it very, very well.  It does not add any real value that cannot be found anywhere else. Worse, its constant extreme bias might influence your judgment. 

 

 

Exactly as the mainstream media then except in the other direction (right rather than left) and better sourcing.

 

 

They don't source, but O-K. I don't know why you'd add the small lie to make them sound better then they are. They are in some ways worse but nearly implying that they do source their own info when they actually write opinionated paragraphs weaved within statements without normal journalistic delineation between the two.

 

The mainstream media outlets are not nearly as left as you think. There are plenty of very left-leaning outlets. The NYT, AP, NPR, WSJ, Reuters, ect are not them. The fact that ZH can solely source from those outlets shows that they offer articles of all viewpoints. It offers compelling evidence that they actually aren't biased. A hypothetical left-leaning ZH could not do the same thing with Fox News or Breitbart articles.

[flesh]

"The mainstream media outlets are not nearly as left as you think. There are plenty of very left-leaning outlets. The NYT, AP, NPR, WSJ, Reuters, ect are not them."

 

NYT and NPR aren't left leaning? You've forced my forehead into my palm, three times while I'm writing this.

 

 

[Guest Schwab711]

"The mainstream media outlets are not nearly as left as you think. There are plenty of very left-leaning outlets. The NYT, AP, NPR, WSJ, Reuters, ect are not them."

 

NYT and NPR aren't left leaning? You've forced my forehead into my palm, three times while I'm writing this.

 

I say they are left leaning. Read what I wrote.

 

"Not nearly as left"

 

I think some people want this perfect media outlet that can't and never has existed. If you think it's a good business, you start it. For what we have, papers like NYT are made up of a variety of journalists that write from many points of view. Not every point of view you have will be represented (but that's true of me too). My main point is that those 'mainstream media' outlets report on so many stories and POV that ZH can exist solely by cherry picking select articles. It's a testament to the outlets.

 

I'm not saying they are perfect or that news is only what they write or whatever other strawmen are associated with fake news rants. I get a majority of journalists are liberal. Still, most news stories (not opinion columns) are able to separate opinion from fact.

[flesh]

You are correct Schwab. I was on #2 whiskey/coke and wasn't paying attention.

 

I subscribed to NYT for one year and read nearly every paper a year or two ago. I was constantly astounded as to how left leaning it was compared to WSJ which is near center afaik. Not much different than MSNBC in tone. The indoctrination level felt high, like being in church growing up. Very one sided. Certainly not antifa far left.

 

Also, although the journalistic quality was high, they rarely used evidence to make any points where it was warranted, it was frequently feelings.  Which makes sense considering lefties test higher in compassion and openness.