The Obamas

[Gregmal]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michelle-obama-says-she-barack-161343521.html

 

I'm sure you thought you knew what this thread was going to be about by the title and the poster. But no....

 

What struck me reading this was two things.

 

Politics aside, I think the Obamas are to be admired for their family values and openness about their relation.

 

The second thing is, you see how people work at their relationships. The Obamas probably had it harder than 99% of people in the world and yet have proven through dedication and a little effort, to make their relationship work. So WTF is wrong with the country that divorce rates keep skyrocketing and people can't seem to get it together?

 

One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. This also typically has hugely negative effects on the children that they then carry and are influenced by.

 

I do think divorce is a major social problem. It's just less obvious and seems to plague people of all backgrounds and political affiliations.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michelle-obama-says-she-barack-161343521.html

 

I'm sure you thought you knew what this thread was going to be about by the title and the poster. But no....

 

What struck me reading this was two things.

 

Politics aside, I think the Obamas are to be admired for their family values and openness about their relation.

 

The second thing is, you see how people work at their relationships. The Obamas probably had it harder than 99% of people in the world and yet have proven through dedication and a little effort, to make their relationship work. So WTF is wrong with the country that divorce rates keep skyrocketing and people can't seem to get it together?

One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. This also typically has hugely negative effects on the children that they then carry and are influenced by.

 

I do think divorce is a major social problem. It's just less obvious and seems to plague people of all backgrounds and political affiliations.

 

Actually, from what I heard, along with brick-and-mortar stores, millennials have killed the divorce industry. Don't have the stats on hands, but the divorce rate is largely a product of boomers while other generations have done a better job toughing it out.

[Gregmal]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michelle-obama-says-she-barack-161343521.html

 

I'm sure you thought you knew what this thread was going to be about by the title and the poster. But no....

 

What struck me reading this was two things.

 

Politics aside, I think the Obamas are to be admired for their family values and openness about their relation.

 

The second thing is, you see how people work at their relationships. The Obamas probably had it harder than 99% of people in the world and yet have proven through dedication and a little effort, to make their relationship work. So WTF is wrong with the country that divorce rates keep skyrocketing and people can't seem to get it together?

One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. This also typically has hugely negative effects on the children that they then carry and are influenced by.

 

I do think divorce is a major social problem. It's just less obvious and seems to plague people of all backgrounds and political affiliations.

 

Actually, from what I heard, along with brick-and-mortar stores, millennials have killed the divorce industry. Don't have the stats on hands, but the divorce rate is largely a product of boomers while other generations have done a better job toughing it out.

 

Yes, I think you may be right, although I've seen stuff on both sides. General stuff I've seen says last decade or two there's been a decline. I guess a better way of putting things is that divorce rates, on an absolute basis are IMO really high. 50%+ is incredible to me.

 

Divorce has to be incredibly traumatic and unpleasant. If it isn't then I guess you could argue something is really, really, wrong. Lives get turned upside down, people's financials get ruined, children have their entire world turned upside down. Why are rates so high is a question I think is worth exploring.

[DooDiligence]

Once upon a time a man asked a woman to marry him.

She said no and they both lived happily ever after.

 

---

 

I believe that we, as animals, have not caught up with the society we've created.

 

When we started saying, "this is mine", there arose disputes and the need

for property laws which included marriage.

 

Before this happened, we all lived together and everyone raised the

kids so it didn't matter much if 2 people decided to split up.

 

The kids still got raised & since everything belonged to everyone,

there wasn't anything to settle except possibly hurt feelings.

 

Many of us choose our mates for all the wrong reasons &

it's really difficult to deal with the aftermath.

 

Heinlein wrote about term limited marriage contracts

in one of his books but I can't remember which

one. I thought it was a great idea

but WTFDIK?

 

Too many hormones.

Too much freedom?

Too many choices?

 

Maybe people should have to get approval

before being allowed to touch each other?

[Cigarbutt]

^Just want to provide some data, which obviously does not translate the human aspect of this.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/23/144-years-of-marriage-and-divorce-in-the-united-states-in-one-chart/?utm_term=.4a208c9d1f58

 

For international followers, it seems that the graph lines in many countries show a similar pattern, although both lines tend to be somewhat higher in the US.

Sociology "experts" have provided some explanations for that but I'll stay away from controversies and stick with numbers.

 

-Divorce rates in the early part of the 20th century were low but an argument could be made that there were several functionless marriages then.

-Wars and the Depression are associated with noise but do not really change the underlying trends.

-Since the 1970's, the proportion between divorces and marriages has remained remarkably constant.

-Some people suggest (I guess Heinlein would be one of them) that what is surprising is the amazingly high proportion of people who can stay together for such a long time.

 

@DooDiligence

I don't really understand your post but the construction of the text (2 lines, getting shorter) has a musicality to it. :)

The book you're looking for (with the quote p.137):

http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Robert-A.-Heinlein-Time-enough-for-love_-the-lives-of-Lazarus-Long.pdf

I assume the copyright has expired.

In the book, the author also says:

"Always listen to experts. They’ll tell you what can’t be done, and why. Then do it."

[gfp]

Thank you for pointing out the subliminal shapes in DooDiligence's post.  I have consulted the Q.Anon followers, who have informed me that it is an obvious reference to the shape of Minnesota.  What is Doo trying to tell us about Minnesota?  Is Minnesota a breadcrumb leading us towards the light?

[DooDiligence]

Thank you for pointing out the subliminal shapes in DooDiligence's post.  I have consulted the Q.Anon followers, who have informed me that it is an obvious reference to the shape of Minnesota.  What is Doo trying to tell us about Minnesota?  Is Minnesota a breadcrumb leading us towards the light?

 

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

 

I'm glad I wasn't eating anything when I read that or it probably would've come out my nose.

"One time, Michael Davey passed an entire cheese sandwich through his nose" (George Carlin).

 

---

 

I'll solve the riddle:

 

What do Minnesota Vikings fans do after they win the Super Bowl?

 

They shut off the X-Box & go to bed.

[Jurgis]

Names changed to protect the privacy of the innocent.

 

A friend has married a divorced lady and they have a great marriage for over ...teen years and counting.

 

Her first marriage was a horrible disaster.

 

Should she toughed it out in totally dysfunctional situation? And missed out on her happiness and the happiness of someone who married her and is happy with her?

 

Yes, there's also children factor, where the outcome is not so clear-cut. There's no A-B testing of what would have happened to children if she did not divorce/etc.

 

It's a tough topic.

 

Heinlein was all for open free sex and multi relationships in his books. But he himself had a great marriage and I'm not sure he ever went open/free (I haven't seen any stories, but I did not search for it strongly either).

 

And I think open free and multi relationships would work better if humans were descended from bonobos. But we are not.

 

Overall human primate genes/tendencies are still way too dominant in human society. Which may lead to disaster now that humans wield nuclear/bacterial sticks. But that's another topic, so.

[Guest cherzeca]

as to millennials I have read that they are delaying marriage and having less children than parents' cohort...which may lead to a reduced divorce rate

[SharperDingaan]

'They' are just being more business like about it; they've also seen their parents divorce, seen the cost and angst it causes, and aren't about to repeat the same mistakes. We would also suggest that it wil be even more the case for Gen-Z (born>1995), who also saw what over-leverage did to their parents. Good on both of them.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/millennials-are-causing-the-u-s-divorce-rate-to-plummet

 

SD

 

[Cigarbutt]

^Perhaps the "delay" is a key feature.

 

Moving along the demographic cohorts, people delay more and more the marriage decision (which likely improves the odds of a successful "match"?).

Also, the decision to have kids is also delayed with birth rates falling across the board except for older cohorts (age 35+), a phenomenon BTW explaining the increasing demand for fertility treatments.

 

I would argue that "having less children" may not be a factor behind lower divorce rates because statistics clearly show that having children has a significant negative correlation with divorce rates.

There is a cause and effect issue here:

-is having children a negative risk factor for divorce?

-is it that couples that would have otherwise divorced stay together because of children?

 

But whichever is right, the numbers I've seen do not suggest that having children is a separate positive risk factor for divorce. Having children can certainly act as a trigger though, meaning that it accelerates a process that may not have been "recognized". So delaying the decision for having children may be wise. But then, families will tend to get smaller as demographic data shows.

 

There is another interesting aspect to this. It is often said (studies) that married people are happier and live longer. While statistically true, these statements often result in interpretations of a cause and effect which is possibly wrong as it may be a simple correlation ie there may be "other" independent factors explaining why being happy, living longer and getting married tend to correlate. Statistics showing increasing divorce rates with second, third, etc marriages would tend to support the latter.

[LC]

On the other hand, the concept of a "band-aid baby" is a real thing.

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind that you don't need to be married, and you don't need to be in a relationship to have kids.

There are many couples with kids that choose to live 'common law' instead. There are also many women who would have liked to have had kids, but left it too late - speaking to the next generations.

 

In NA there's also the growing phenomenon of smart women and dumb guys. There are quite a few universities, and colleges, where the female student population is now > 50% of the male population. And quite a few situations where the female is now also the higher earner going into a child-bearing relationship. Just a different way of doing way of doing things.

 

All good.

 

SD

 

 

[Cigarbutt]

On the other hand, the concept of a "band-aid baby" is a real thing.

Good point LC, certainly in some cases. Humility and flexibility required.

 

Fine-tuning on your comment, when taking into account the #1 reason for divorce, lack of commitment is described and a baby, band-aid or otherwise, clearly requires a different and more profound commitment so, I guess, a potential game-changer. Another major reason mentioned is conflict and personal incompatibility, in which case I doubt that a baby will alleviate the issue. Also, very much up there, in terms of motivation to file, is a specific situation which is related to the biological drive behind baby formation. For that cheating aspect, I'll let Dennis Quaid formulate it in a way that may suit the opening poster:

[Gregmal]

Getting into "irreconcilable differences"... isn't this just another way of saying you were wrong in the first place? I've always found that committed people, like the Obamas for instance, work through it because they don't view failure as an option. Whereas the most common element I've seen in the "irreconcilable differences" camp, is the Wolf of Wall Street depiction... Two people who fit, get married. One person changes, for better or for worse, and then renegs... That's different. It's much rarer Id imagine to find two normal people just grow old and tired of each other if they were truly a good match in the first place.

[DooDiligence]

Michelle Obama is looking particularly good tonight on 20/20.

 

Calm, rational, intelligent, capable.

[rkbabang]

Even with the baby boomers it wasn't as bad as the "50% of marriages end in divorce" statement makes it sound.  I'm too lazy to look this all up again, but I read something once that broke it down.  Most 1st marriages do not end in divorce.  Most people who get divorced  once are extremely likely to get divorced twice or more.    So someone who gets married and stays married has only 1 marriage which does not end in divorce, but someone who has been divorced 4 times has had 4 marriages which all ended in divorce.    In other words it is the same small group of people getting divorced over and over which account for the 50% of marriages statistic.  Most marriages end in divorce, but the vast majority of people who get married stay married.

 

 

[Cigarbutt]

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-is-over-but-the-myth-lives-on.html

https://flowingdata.com/2016/03/30/divorce-rates-for-different-groups/

[rkbabang]

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-is-over-but-the-myth-lives-on.html

https://flowingdata.com/2016/03/30/divorce-rates-for-different-groups/

 

Here's another one:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/heart-the-matter/201704/do-half-all-marriages-really-end-in-divorce

 

 

"The truth is, the average couple getting married today has more like a 75 percent chance of staying married. That means that only about 1 in 4 recent marriages are likely to end in divorce.

 

"if you are entering into a second or third marriage, you face an approximately 75 percent chance of getting divorced, or possibly higher."

 

"If you have divorced before, you are statistically more likely to do it again. If your partner has also divorced before, then (as you might imagine) your joint risk of divorce is even higher. Studies show that those who consider divorce a viable option are more likely to choose it when times get tough. In addition, those who have previously divorced have ex-husbands and/or ex-wives, and often children from those earlier marriages in their circle. These additional people, and the issues they bring with them, can be "baggage" that puts a strain on a new relationship."

 

 

[DTEJD1997]

Keep in mind that you don't need to be married, and you don't need to be in a relationship to have kids.

There are many couples with kids that choose to live 'common law' instead. There are also many women who would have liked to have had kids, but left it too late - speaking to the next generations.

 

In NA there's also the growing phenomenon of smart women and dumb guys. There are quite a few universities, and colleges, where the female student population is now > 50% of the male population. And quite a few situations where the female is now also the higher earner going into a child-bearing relationship. Just a different way of doing way of doing things.

 

All good.

 

SD

 

I would be cautious in assuming that women are "smarter" than men just because at some schools they are over 50% of the enrolled students.

 

I could counter with an argument that the women are actually "more stupider" from the simple fact that more of them are choosing the path of "higher education".

 

A shocking amount of education & degrees in the USA are simply no good or even have a negative value.  So once again, the women are being taken advantage of.

 

Obviously this is not the case in every instance...but I think the general population would be shocked at how much the value of a college degree has declined.

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind that you don't need to be married, and you don't need to be in a relationship to have kids.

There are many couples with kids that choose to live 'common law' instead. There are also many women who would have liked to have had kids, but left it too late - speaking to the next generations.

 

In NA there's also the growing phenomenon of smart women and dumb guys. There are quite a few universities, and colleges, where the female student population is now > 50% of the male population. And quite a few situations where the female is now also the higher earner going into a child-bearing relationship. Just a different way of doing way of doing things.

 

All good.

 

SD

 

I would be cautious in assuming that women are "smarter" than men just because at some schools they are over 50% of the enrolled students.

 

I could counter with an argument that the women are actually "more stupider" from the simple fact that more of them are choosing the path of "higher education".

 

A shocking amount of education & degrees in the USA are simply no good or even have a negative value.  So once again, the women are being taken advantage of.

 

Obviously this is not the case in every instance...but I think the general population would be shocked at how much the value of a college degree has declined.

 

I hear you ....

 

This is more along the lines of what used to be the typical male professional (university) and female teacher/nurse/store owner (college), now increasingly becoming the female professional (university) and the male welder/chef/mechanic (college). It's just a different combination; & hey if it works, the power to them.

 

Agreed there's still a lot of basket weaving, but look at all the numbers and harder sciences courses (accounting, finance, engineering, chemistry, physics, sciences, etc). There are a lot more women than there used to be, these classes are often > 50% female, and they are more than holding their own. Long overdue.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

...One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. ...

 

Honestly, so what? -Somehow this is all to the priorities of that said money manager. It all boils down to personal priorities [, for which you're personal responsible].

[Gregmal]

...One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. ...

 

Honestly, so what? -Somehow this is all to the priorities of that said money manager. It all boils down to personal priorities [, for which you're personal responsible].

 

So what? People save, and invest, to later have freedom with their life. Getting divorced crushes that, or at the least sets it back big time. Sure, you have personal freedom from a spouse, but chances are you've been removed for quite a while already. Unlike a portfolio draw down, you don't get to wait for it to bounce back.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

...One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. ...

 

Honestly, so what? -Somehow this is all to the priorities of that said money manager. It all boils down to personal priorities [, for which you're personal responsible].

 

So what? People save, and invest, to later have freedom with their life. Getting divorced crushes that, or at the least sets it back big time. Sure, you have personal freedom from a spouse, but chances are you've been removed for quite a while already. Unlike a portfolio draw down, you don't get to wait for it to bounce back.

 

Greg,

 

You appear to not get the meaning of my post - why even marry in the first place [,if you're not totally sure of what you're doing]?

[Gregmal]

...One of the most common causes I see with investors when it comes to the cause of financial hardships is getting through a mid life divorce. It's worse than seeing your portfolio take a 50% draw down because it's never coming back. ...

 

Honestly, so what? -Somehow this is all to the priorities of that said money manager. It all boils down to personal priorities [, for which you're personal responsible].

 

So what? People save, and invest, to later have freedom with their life. Getting divorced crushes that, or at the least sets it back big time. Sure, you have personal freedom from a spouse, but chances are you've been removed for quite a while already. Unlike a portfolio draw down, you don't get to wait for it to bounce back.

 

Greg,

 

You appear to not get the meaning of my post - why even marry in the first place [,if you're not totally sure of what you're doing]?

 

I agree, yes. I think it's a cultural thing. Much greater thought should go into it, and if uncertain, wait... But also not surprising when you see the news and the kind of crap that gets glorified...