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Trump - transformational President


shalab
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I think there is a reasonable chance Trump will be viewed years from now as a transformational President. I think he is putting many of the building blocks in place to ensure the US economy prospers in the years to come:

1.) low taxes and positive change to how non-US earnings are taxed (for US based businesses)

2.) regulations are being greatly reduced

3.) securing low cost energy supplies

4.) updating trade agreements to reflect geopolitical and trade realities of 2018

 

Obviously there are lots of other things going on that could easily derail the successes he has had. Trump is definitely not status quo :-)

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I think there is a reasonable chance Trump will be viewed years from now as a transformational President. I think he is putting many of the building blocks in place to ensure the US economy prospers in the years to come:

1.) low taxes and positive change to how non-US earnings are taxed (for US based businesses)

2.) regulations are being greatly reduced

3.) securing low cost energy supplies

4.) updating trade agreements to reflect geopolitical and trade realities of 2018

 

Obviously there are lots of other things going on that could easily derail the successes he has had. Trump is definitely not status quo :-)

 

I respectfully disagree here. I've said this before, but I believe the first 3, and possible all 4 of your points, are short-term focused. Low taxes and lack of regulations will (IMO) do nothing for the large social and wealth inequality that the US faces. Repositioning alliances with other countries which suffer from high inequality is also a poor decision in the long-term. Population inequality is one of, if not the main problem I believe the US faces, and Trump's policies are not long-term solutions.

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I think there is a reasonable chance Trump will be viewed years from now as a transformational President. I think he is putting many of the building blocks in place to ensure the US economy prospers in the years to come:

1.) low taxes and positive change to how non-US earnings are taxed (for US based businesses)

2.) regulations are being greatly reduced

3.) securing low cost energy supplies

4.) updating trade agreements to reflect geopolitical and trade realities of 2018

 

Obviously there are lots of other things going on that could easily derail the successes he has had. Trump is definitely not status quo :-)

 

1) is correct and the change in tax structure for non - US earnings is significant, but how does this change the affect individuals? Not so much. As far as individual tax rates are concerned, if you Live in a state with high tax rates, the impact of the lower federal tax is pretty much offset by the lack of ability to claim state tax and real estate tax deductions. Net result for me was close to nill, but I may not be representative.

 

2) so far not much has been done. I invest in the pipeline sector and it’s a bigger mess than under Obama.

 

3) is driven by economics. If you look at the growth in NG and crude production, you will see that the biggest leap came under Obama’s. It was simply driven by economics, not politics.

 

4) so far Trump has not been able to get any deal done in two years. He definitely is trying to steer things up. We will have to see if the talk actually is going to result in a tangible change.

 

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I think there is a reasonable chance Trump will be viewed years from now as a transformational President. I think he is putting many of the building blocks in place to ensure the US economy prospers in the years to come:

1.) low taxes and positive change to how non-US earnings are taxed (for US based businesses)

2.) regulations are being greatly reduced

3.) securing low cost energy supplies

4.) updating trade agreements to reflect geopolitical and trade realities of 2018

 

Obviously there are lots of other things going on that could easily derail the successes he has had. Trump is definitely not status quo :-)

 

I respectfully disagree here. I've said this before, but I believe the first 3, and possible all 4 of your points, are short-term focused. Low taxes and lack of regulations will (IMO) do nothing for the large social and wealth inequality that the US faces. Repositioning alliances with other countries which suffer from high inequality is also a poor decision in the long-term. Population inequality is one of, if not the main problem I believe the US faces, and Trump's policies are not long-term solutions.

 

LC, my 4 points above were to highlight the 4 areas where I believe Trump’s policies may impact the economy the most in the next couple of years. The US has been grappling with income inequality issues for decades. In the near term, if what Trump is doing does structurally help the US economy (grow GDP at a higher rate) then this will be a benefit to US workers (higher employment and higher wages).

 

I look at the discussion around free trade. Pre-Trump there was no discussion of the trade offs. If you were not a rabid pro-free trader you were considered an idiot. Today there is a much more robust discussion around the fact that there are winners and losers (sectors etc). My guess is when Trump is gone we will not return to the previous paradigm but rather end up somewhere in the middle.

 

There are many things about Trump that I find deeply concerning. However, there are other things going on that may, in the end (post Trump), put the US in a better place. Time will tell :-)

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There are many things about Trump that I find deeply concerning. However, there are other things going on that may, in the end (post Trump), put the US in a better place. Time will tell :-)

 

Perhaps, and frankly I hope so.

 

But I find it both odd and concerning that, suddenly, people are talking about free trade being an anchor on our economy. It's as if centuries of human trade experience and economic literature are thrown out the window, just because the world has gotten more competitive and the US isn't the clear winner anymore.

 

 

 

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"Repositioning alliances with other countries which suffer from high inequality is also a poor decision in the long-term. Population inequality is one of, if not the main problem I believe the US faces, and Trump's policies are not long-term solutions."

 

I would like to know which country in the history of mankind has had equality? In any real form really?

 

Cardboard

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"Repositioning alliances with other countries which suffer from high inequality is also a poor decision in the long-term. Population inequality is one of, if not the main problem I believe the US faces, and Trump's policies are not long-term solutions."

 

I would like to know which country in the history of mankind has had equality? In any real form really?

 

Cardboard

 

I recommend googling for “ The Great Gatsby curve” and go from there.

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"Repositioning alliances with other countries which suffer from high inequality is also a poor decision in the long-term. Population inequality is one of, if not the main problem I believe the US faces, and Trump's policies are not long-term solutions."

 

I would like to know which country in the history of mankind has had equality? In any real form really?

 

Cardboard

 

North Korea is pretty equal.  If you ignore the small number at the top, and the 200K or so being worked and starved to death in the camps, everyone else is pretty much the same.

 

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There are many things about Trump that I find deeply concerning. However, there are other things going on that may, in the end (post Trump), put the US in a better place. Time will tell :-)

 

Perhaps, and frankly I hope so.

 

But I find it both odd and concerning that, suddenly, people are talking about free trade being an anchor on our economy. It's as if centuries of human trade experience and economic literature are thrown out the window, just because the world has gotten more competitive and the US isn't the clear winner anymore.

 

I agree. I also think the same about immigration. People have forgotten or badly misunderstood what made America great to begin with. I actually think immigration is more important than trade since America already has a huge internal free trade zone.

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I was talking with a friend in Alaska. There is a lot of oil up there. Gull Island is reputed to be the biggest oil field in the world. One company just had a multi billion barrel field discovery nearby. He is worried too many will move up there to get their piece of the state resource dividend paid to residents. They should call the increase a "Trump Dividend". Value investors should be making investments along the pipeline route through Canada.

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Officials at a @SouthwestKey shelter in Mesa, AZ were unaware that an HIV-positive worker was sexually abusing boys in its care for months.

 

Horrifying!  But it seems as though the abuse started in August of 2016 and continued into mid 2017...this mess is as much Obama's as Trump's.  Just making sure we're being objective here...as much as I dislike Trump.  Cheers!

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